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Non-Tech : GRIN (Grand Toys International Inc) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MoneyMade who wrote (95)	12/9/1998 12:33:00 AM
From: Frank McVerry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 495

GRIN - my earnings estimates. PART 1 (This was going to be one post but because I use ten words when one would do, I decided to make it a 'short series'. This part covers my thoughts for 4th quarter) Here is an estimate for the coming 4th quarter This past year so far has had some problems for GRIN, notably the ToysRUs overstock problem (have you visited one recently - the 'bargain bins' are everywhere), extra 'Asia crisis' container costs and fallen Canadian dollar (about 10% decline April-October) which reduced their gross profits. Despite these harsh conditions, GRIN has continued to post consistent profits quarter after quarter, supporting my 'efficient, lean-and-mean' assessment of the company in message#63. My earnings estimate is very simple - use the performance of the first 3 quarters of '98 to estimate the 4th quarter, then add-on the 'Furby effect'. So far this year, earnings are running about 68% of last year's excellent performance, so taking the 68% of last year's 4th quarter (41c) we get 28c ...without Furby. That is about $448000 Now for Furby. Well, the 4th quarter should be fairly easy to calculate. The company expects to receive and distribute 195000 Furbys during this time. We can be assured that all of these will be sold ! Previously, (message#9) this was calculated at 16c per share ($246000) - I have seen other estimates of 20c. No one knows for sure, including even GRIN management how much Furby profit will reach the bottom-line until the accounts are done but there may be good reason for using even higher numbers - for the next part of this series ! So for 4th quarter of '98, my estimate is about 44c to 48c per share - an improvement of 7% to 17% over last year's record blow-out 4th quarter earnings. Your thoughts ? Agree or disagree ? Frank