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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1220)	12/9/1998 6:32:00 AM
From: Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Maurice: This could cost Nokia billions by having no path to cdma2000. Q! might simply go with the existing cdma2000 licensees and leave Nokia out in the cold. As I understood, there is only one CDMA2000 licnesee and that is Phillips Electronics. dave

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1220)	12/9/1998 6:54:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Respond to of 34857

Yeah, Maurice, I'm reeeal scared of Nokia being outflanked by Philips. Those nifty Philips cdma2000 phones that everyone is waiting... I'm sure they'll put a big dent in Nokia's global market share. Of course, there's this small question of whether the entire Philips phone division is going to be liquidated next year after producing a staggering 500 million dollar loss in 1998. There may not be many guldens left for third generation phone R&D. It is rumored in Europe that Philips may have to retreat entirely into GSM market and abandon all expansion until their phone unit stops bleeding like a stuck pig. I suspect you know perfectly well why I'm focusing on GSM and TDMA. Because 1998 was the year when CDMA did not arrive. No China, no growth leadership in USA. The three companies focusing on CDMA phone manufacturing in USA, Qualcomm, Samsung and Sony, got flattened by Nokia and Motorola in the marketshare sweepstakes. Before the new CDMA models from Nokia and Motorola arrived. It means that these gains were made with TDMA and GSM models over CDMA. I think you know the real reason why Qualcomm's stock price is tanking and Nokia's is soaring: the retail numbers from the fourth quarter are starting to trickle in. The 3G is going to be a minor concern in the minds of most investors when these figures are published. Maurice, you own both stocks - change the allocations. For once, listen to me. Tero

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1220)	12/9/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Mqurice...I went to bed thinking exactly the same thing last night. This fight must be holding up infrastructure deployments around the world. Everybody is involved, carriers, suppliers, subscribers.Why are Nokia and the rest allowing Ericsson to do their bidding? Now if you were a telecom equip supplier who would you consider a more serious rival, Ericsson or Q? Someone is being set up to be the fall guy and methinks it aint Q. Tero now is the time to switch YOUR allocation. Nokia has become VERY expensive and Q cheap.Go back a couple of years and look at how the relationship has changed, Q used to have the exhorbitant PE and Nokia the more reasonable. You'll say yeah, but look what's happened over the past couple of years.And what has happened? Nokia has become the largest manufacturer of handsets in the world and CDMA has gotten off the ground around the world. Q has more than quadrupled revenues. Sure there have been problems but all told things are going very well. We'll all see how long TDMA continues to grow faster than CDMA in US, and we'll also see what happens to CDMA sub growth around the world.I've said it before. Nokia will not be able to sustain this share price momentum even if fundamentals are miraculously able to keep up the pace... Allright I give in. A prudent person might wait till we see how the 3G endgame turns out but Prudence has never been my strong suit....Dave