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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Morytko who wrote (1313)	12/9/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: Tom Gebing	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

To All: From Briefing.com this morning.... Telecommunications Equipment Brief: Like networking group we expect earnings growth to be well above market/sector average... But also like networking industry, leadership concentrated in fewer and fewer hands... Nortel (NT), Tellabs (TLAB) and Lucent (LU) clear leaders in this space and best bets for market outperformance going forward... Advanced Fibre (AFCI), ADC Telecom (ADCT), Ciena (CIEN) and Teligent (TGNT) Briefing's best bets for being acquired in 1999.

To: Steve Morytko who wrote (1313)	12/9/1998 9:47:00 AM
From: Bill McCullen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3299

Steve, You are right on the money. TLAB deal means nothing for AFCI. Esterina has shown extreme ignorance on this thread through his/her many posts. Examples: - sighting "strong closings" when AFCI is in the midst of a significant sell-off - suggesting that upward moves by CIEN and ASND will somehow fortell of a rally in AFCI. - sighting a "double bottom" and a "buy signal" when we aren't even close to the low and the stock hasn't stopped falling. - suggesting the AT&T might acquire AFCI. This one is too stupid to even discuss. - suggesting that contract wins for other companies will benefit AFCI. These comments are too ill-informed to be the work of a hypster I believe that they simply reflect an extreme lack of understanding of what AFCI's business is and the telecommunications business in general. AFCI is a company with great technology that has lost all credibility with the investment community. It will take time to re-establish this credibility. AFCI needs to hire a new CEO and achieve several consecutive quarters of meeting or exceeding expectations before faith will be restored. The wild-card here is a takeover. Forget LU they have all the xDSL technology they need in house and are in the midst of introducing a new DLC system (Anymedia) that will compete with UMC-1000 both domestically and Internationally. More likely candidates would be foreign telecom suppliers who lack a strong presence in the access market (Fujitsu & Siemens are examples) or perhaps a datacom company looking for more voice expertise like CSCO or 3Com. TLAB would seem to make sense but they are reducing their holdings. In the mean time AFC is probably feeling some competitive pressure from new companies in the access arena like CACS (extremely overvalued access company - may be a good short candidate), and Teledata recently acquired by ADCT). Lets try to get some fact-based intelligent discussion going on this thread. Bill