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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (38732)	12/9/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 132070

Mike-and-Will, question: How does the fact that certain industries are not participating in bubble mania affect your prediction of bubble eventually bursting? E.G. oil stuff, steel stuff, etc. Some guy named Boyar was just on CNBC, he was saying basically Internet stocks are a bubble, I know most on this thread would add tech stocks, but the market continues to be two-tiered, with certain companies (Intel, Dell, Cisco, Lucent, Microsoft, etc.,) in the upper level, and others not. Is this consistent with the history of bubbles? My impression, which I have stated before, and been attacked for everytime, is that there is a world of difference between stocks that are overpriced, and an actual bubble. In the end, the difference is between relatively orderly regression to the mean, and explosive devaluation. Finally, I note that in many situations, you and Burke and others are actually arguing that those who recommend stocks and buy them are ignoring macroeconomic factors in their analysis. Which does not make them irrational, just ignorant. Are not bubbles by their very nature irrational? Look forward, as always, to your intelligent response. CobaltBlue

To: Mike M2 who wrote (38732)	12/9/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: james paterson	Respond to of 132070

Mike, I made the mistake of starting to short at around 8700. I just could'nt believe that they would ever get to the old hi. My big mistake was underestimating the incredible amount of liquidity out there. Also, I'm astounded by the absence of fear. It's quite clear that the people who piled back into the mkt are confident that AG will save them if something goes amiss. I've given up trying to anticipate what the mkt will do & will allow my P&F charts to make my decisions from now on. James