Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (2915)	12/9/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Sawtooth	Respond to of 9818

12/14/98 BusinessWeek article (things not going so good): businessweek.com

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (2915)	12/10/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce	Respond to of 9818

Global cash crisis waiting in the wings afr.com.au Global cash crisis waiting in the wings By Andreea Papuc Financial market traders have dubbed it the millennium butterfly. It is their way of describing the distortion in interest rates on December '99 bank bill futures sparked by concerns about the approach of 2000. [...] The phenomenon is called the millennium butterfly because of the shape of the graph of 90-day bill futures. This is because the implied rates on the December '99 contract are sharply higher than the September '99 and March '00 contracts and December contracts in other years. [...]

To: Bill Ounce who wrote (2915)	12/10/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Millenium butterflies USATODAY usatoday.com [...] Millennium butterflies: Sharp eyes have identified this new species in the money market futures pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research says the butterflies may be the first quantifiable sign of Y2K fear in a major financial market. He's watching to see how far they spread. "They are the leading edge of Y2K panic in the financial markets," he says. What does a millenium butterfly look like? Alexander Manzara, a Commerz Futures broker in Chicago, identified one Wednesday afternoon. You see their outline by comparing three consecutive three-month contracts spanning the date change on LIBOR, the London inter-bank offered rate of interest on dollar loans. The rates Wednesday were 4.72%, 5.12% and 4.80%. One wing of the butterfly was the 4.72% September 1999 contract. The body was the 5.12% December contract and the other wing was the 4.80% March 2000 contract. The December contract rate is so far out of line with the contracts on either side that it means something is wrong. It covers Dec. 16, 1999, to March 16, 2000. "This implies that banks are not anxious to be lenders over the period covering the millenium turn," Manzara says. "There is fear in the system of not receiving your cash flows." [...]