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Gold/Mining/Energy : Global Santa Fe (GSF) (formerly Global Marine) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j_fir2 who wrote (1038)	12/9/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Bald Eagle	Respond to of 2282

I heard a couple of hours ago that Shell is going to buy Chevron. Can anyone confirm?

To: j_fir2 who wrote (1038)	12/9/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: Ram Seetharaman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2282

I agree that GLM is worth more! But in a market where oil prices may go to single digits next year, buyers won't pay premium for GLM. GLM won't have any problem surviving though, since they have consistently produced good profits for the past couple of years. It is just the timing in 1998/1999. Energy prices have eroded for over a dozen years now. That is why some economists in U.S are even talking of deflation in the U.S (deflation is a reality in the commodity markets as of today!). Couple of years ago I bought GLM at $8 and got out at $ 14 only to see it reach as high as $ 30. Now it is back to single digits and is a great buy - even an aggressive and strong buy for those willing to wait several months. But in an immediate buyout I don't see anyone paying $ 30 for GLM. That will rock the market for sure! Exxon/Mobil deal didn't rock the market at all - merger of two fat cats - investors showed only a tepid response.

To: j_fir2 who wrote (1038)	12/10/1998 2:03:00 AM
From: hdr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2282

The price that would or could be paid if GLM was a buyout candidate has nothing to do with the market capitalization. We have to look at the number of contracts, age of rigs, type of rigs (deep or shallow, etc.), cash on hand and debt among other things. Unfortunately the cash and debt to equity do not look that good. Their book value of assets, ie. rigs, is relatively modern and of value unlike other companies. And they do have contracts for the future. At our level of knowledge I don't think anyone can reasonably speculate what there per share value might be. IMHO I think it would be at least mid teens or higher, but I do not know how to devalue the 750mill long term debt. hdr