To: John Mansfield who wrote (24037 ) 12/9/1998 1:01:00 PM From: Alex Respond to of 116764
UK RESEARCHER WARNS OF SPREAD OF GLOBAL PRICE DEFLATION LONDON (MktNews) - Price deflation is now widespread across the European Union and beyond, according to a new analysis of purchasing data published by a prominent U.K. research group Wednesday. The report by NTC Research claims price deflation is now widespread for the first time since the Great Depression. "Official data show retail price index falls in France, Germany and Japan in recent months. But the full picture of how widespread and potentially serious the situation is can be seen only when evidence from the new purchasing surveys is considered," NTC said. NTC noted that purchasing managers' surveys are now available for both manufacturing and service sectors and represent some 80% of total private sector economic activity in the EU. "In all the countries where compatible surveys take place the price indexes are at an all-time low, and reflect falling prices," NTC said. Another reason, it said, for believing that the deflationary situation is more widespread is the likelihood that official figures are underestimating inflation. "For example, the basket of goods used as the basis for almost all calculations cannot properly be adjusted for the rapid technological advances that are continuously taking place," the research outfit said. It said official figures almost certainly overstate true price inflation by about a percentage point and that this margin of error could easily mean the difference between inflation and deflation. The report concludes that manufacturing prices and are falling in many developed countries, possibly at the fastest rate since the 1930s, while service-sector input and output prices are also starting to fall. Retail prices, it adds, are certainly either already falling or showing distinct signs of being about to do so in most of Europe, Japan and the U.S. 06:12 EST 12/09 © 1998 Market News Service, Inc.economeister.com