To: Qualopec who wrote (3381 ) 12/9/1998 3:28:00 PM From: RocketMan Respond to of 29970
Well now, there is an interesting question. Like you, I have tried to outguess who is going to kick who's ass, and I never get it right, so what I try to do now is cover all the bases and get a bit of each. When a clear winner emerges, I try to cut my losses and pile on the winner. The problem is that I have been premature in declaring a winner, and have just as often piled onto a loser -- like PAIR, ouch :-) Anyway, in response to your questions, from what I have seen recently DSL is very much in the running, but I'm not sure that either DSL or cable will win out over the next year or two, if at all. With the telcos wanting to send high speed data and VoIP over DSL, and the cable operators wanting to send data and phone calls over their cable, and with regulators wanting to even out the playing field, I just don't see a winner on the horizon. Besides, with DOJ breathing down MSFT's neck, I doubt if they are going to stomp on anyone very soon. AOL is trying to play both sides, offering AOL-TV over cable and working with Bell Atlantic for DSL. So I don't think you have those particular "evil three" out there, but another "evil three or four or five," and will for a long time to come, IMHO. I don't think at this stage of the game ATHM really has to worry about bandwidth competition as much as trying to grow their subscriber base. With high speed access, their own portal, and cable TV besides, it seems a no-brainer to me to get subscribers. I don't see their competition being in the hardware area, but in services. OTOH, I can't see AOL just sitting idly by while ATHM gets bigger and bigger, so I am playing both bases here, AOL and ATHM. But then, what do I know, my track record has not been very good lately :-)