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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARP - V Argentina Gold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (1548)	12/9/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: John Fairchild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3282

The angle I like here is that drill results will be out probably this week. We now have a safety net in the ABX offer, so mediocre results will not kill us but more high grade holes will send ARP on it's way to higher ground. I believe that Barrick has recognized hole 90 as defining what the properties potential is even though many of the alleged experts appeared to want to see the limits of the Amable zone by other drill holes. Obviously ARP wants to show the world what they have by way of analyst inspection of the property. Barrick is now under the gun to try and make an offer they feel stands a chance of acceptance but fails. Now a clear signal is sent to the investment community that Veladero is a mine. With ARP declining the offer of $5.50 we immediately see that $5.50 is minimum value based on the drill results so far. So what is Barrick's strategy now? Did they low ball the first offer with the intent that a second higher offer will represent an ultimate high end value for the property. Quoting an offer that represents a premium to previous trading days seems simplistic when everyone recognizes that trading range at this stage is more dependant on hole by hole results. I guess the point I am trying to make here is that it is too soon to put a price tag on ARP. The value could be significantly higher than Barrick is offering. That recognition could come within days or within weeks. But I think we now know what the minimum value is because of Barrick's offer. John

To: marcos who wrote (1548)	12/9/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3282

Marcos - well their timing has been sharp and now they have about the same equity position as NEM. ARP having turned down $5,50 in the negotiations have to keep on truckin' and drillin' and getting results. Can't believe, though, that NEM don't have a battle plan as from past history Barrick was bound to move if the results were good. Also from postings here it is apparent that ARP have a huge and important (to ABX especially) land position. Like you, I too have only a small position, but, as my wife says 'it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick' E