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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Irene Harvey who wrote (38836)	12/9/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Irene, I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop and for China to devalue. That would be the bottom of this cycle, IMHO. They say they will not do it, in which case I will have a long wait. But my research shows that they won't have any choice. The same is true of Brazil, except for magnitude. The bosses of both countries are surprised they can't just order their economies to get better. <G> So, though I think Mark Mobius is a great manager, that China is the place to be for the next 30 years and that the funds are selling at discounts greater than 20%, I am still waiting for that final crash a devaluation will bring. And, to be frank, I thought it would have happened by now. I've got to fess up here and tell you that I don't know much about Brady Bonds. I buy foreign bonds, but I buy them in the foreign currency, not denominated in dollars. My understanding is that the Brady Bonds are denominated in dollars, but are the obligation of foreign sovereign states. However, I know for a fact that there is nothing safe that you can buy and hold that yields 11% while T-Bill rates are under 5%. So, the yield alone scares me off. The market is saying they have more risk than an American junk bond, and that is a lot more risk than I will take. MB