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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19731)	12/9/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: Bill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Interesting, but only 7 of your 16 reasons are listed. Could you list the others?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19731)	12/9/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

js: mrkt will be paying higher pe for growth stocks in this enviornment thus u see shift from blue chips to future possibility of big growth. just as an example. mrk : down 6 today and amzn up 12 just an exagerated example. what is making MARKET PE so high are all these stocks like MRK, PFE, GE but the earning in sp 500 is mostly coming from csco, dell msft, sunw. so if u pick just 10-12 companies that are producing reliable earning u should do better then the mrkt. i posted something similar on this thread on Oct. 7-8 re: mkrt PEG and CSCO peg. so some people will buy the Market (spy) and some will buy where they see future earning growth. good luck 2 u. U.C. SanD a good med school?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19731)	12/9/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Bong Lewis	Respond to of 77400

jacob, glad to find you here. I used to scan for your name at AMAT thread. Feel boring for a while without seeing your posts. I sold most of my gain too early. Fortunatetly to get out PG at 90. Still keep a few drug stocks because they are not sensitive to economy. Like you, I am sitting on 80% cash. One day will be our time, again. Good luck to us.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19731)	12/10/1998 12:33:00 AM
From: Jim Bautch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Jacob, Sounds like you hit the nail on the head. I can hardly wait to short cisco and the rest of these "high flyers". Don't get me wrong, I think cisco is a great company, but I don't think they can grow their company at 50% a year. Glad to see that someone still has a grasp of reality on this thread. Tico

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19731)	12/10/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

everything is once again pointing to a return to a retest of 7500 The market will surely correct sometime, but I see no reason to think it is immediate or will be as sever as you predict. 1)PE ... 30 ... History is meaningless. The PE has been high for several years. I would say history is changing, mostly due to more money, everything from 401Ks to foreign investors buying stock. The greater supply of money leads to higher PE on the average. This trend is not changing at this time. 2) Employment ... Earnings. Earnings don't have to grow as much in a low inflation environment to make a company attractive. Historical earnings were masked by the underlying reduction in the value of the money. 3)Japan isn't fixed. Japan has been broken through the whole bull market. It has turned out to be an advantage to the U.S. that most asian countries have such a restrictive trade policy. The demand was always much higher than what countries allowed to be imported so now even with reduced demand the U.S trade was not hurt as much as their own internal trade. Russia was never much of a trade partner, dito China, any improvement there is a bonus. Latin America is holding it's own for now. (This of course varies some by company and sector). 4) Internet Rally It is reasonable to gamble that commerce will shift to the internet. The winners there will be huge in the next millenium. The big potential rewards invite bigger risks (like any gamble some will get burned big time and some will get rich). 5)Oil price. Oil production is at a peak therefore low prices. Worldwide oil supply will not peak (according to estimates) until 2002 at which time it may reduce. As in point 3, big trouble in asia translates to smaller trouble here (U.S.) because of their historical trade restrictions. 6) U.S. Trade deficit The numbers are for hard manufactured goods and don't show the whole picture. 7) Credit Credit acts as a money multiplier. Savings rate is also not a complete picture. The U.S. economy runs better than those with high savings rates (i.e. Japan) because of the big stimulus for commercial activity for it's own sake. Modern manufacturing can produce far more stuff for people than there are people making it. That stuff can be sold because a lot of people are making a living from non productive areas. This may be swapping beanie-babies, selling food that is often wasted, or entertainment venues. It may not in itself increase the wealth of a nation, but it keeps the money changing hands and the employment at high levels. Keep predicting a market correction and you will be right someday. There is no fundamental reason to think one is imminent. TP

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19731)	12/12/1998 4:34:00 AM
From: ed	Respond to of 77400

Well, you are again trying to throw cold water into the market !!! You were just lucky to predict the drop of AMAT in Aug, and that was just common sense thinking about the fact most of AMAT's equipments were sold to the Far East , while in Aug that area is in a economical down turn. One thing is for sure is as the world population continues to grow, the scale of world economy will continue to grow, which means we need more cars, computers, softwares, and internets. The Asian's trouble of 1997 and 1998 was caused by the hedge fund speculation in each of the Asia's stock/currency market, and the long term debt can't sustain the short term debt, which caused devaluation of local currency , most Asian countries develop their economies by borrowing, once the currency devalluated, the burden of debt will be heavier. But fundamentally, there is no problem in Asian economy. What the Asian countries need is a bridge fund to cover their short term debt, and IMF provided that. Just before the sudden down turn of the Asian economy, most countries are growing in a fast pace, and the problem is coming from outside. As for now, the worst for Asian economy is over, and the economy in Asia is now in a recovery mode and will be fast. Not every Asian country wants to export to US , and China is now the largest country to absorb most of Asia's export and the percentage will continue to grow as times go by. I do not know how can people take the report of CNBS, one day it said it is the end of the world , and the other day it paint a rosy picture of the world economy, the rate is low without inflation , and almost full employment, ....etc. However, I just trust my own judgement which is based on the conversation with real business men in Asia, not based on untrue report from CNN, CNBC , newspaper ...etc , that Asia is now in a recovery mode, and it will be fast. The first US industry which will benefit from Asia's recovery will be the semiconductor industry, and this is just the begining of the up cycle of that industry and the stock price is reflecting.