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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: james paterson who wrote (38843)	12/10/1998 10:00:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

James, I had a one third put position on Amat that expired worthless in Nov. I am waiting to reestablish. I do think that Novellus is a much worse co. than AMAT, which has lots of cash and excellent products. My only argument with AMAT is that it is in a lousy industry that happens to be falling apart, and its stock is priced at levels that say a recovery has already taken place, and is, in fact, at a peak of business activity. It is at 75 times eps estimates that are simply not going to happen. I have made money on AMAT puts in the last few years, but no homeruns. They have certainly never made my 1000% club. I think it is like Schlumberger in drilling or Barrick in Gold. Folks may hate the industry fundamentals, but if they have to hold their nose and buy a stock, these are the ones they buy. So, I think that AMAT will go down to the high teens. However, I think it could rise to $50 first, as the XMAS lies from chippies keep going, which is why I am holding off for awhile. MB