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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon K. who wrote (1111)	12/9/1998 10:25:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Better than 50%? Try some of the better technicians at well over 90%. The educational system is filled with people who cannot trade the markets..... Buy Market Wizards, either the first or the second. Read it. If you still think it is random, ask yourself how these people made all that money year after year after year. Blind Luck?

To: Jon K. who wrote (1111)	12/9/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Jon K.: Do you have any recommendations for TA and charting books for a newbie? (I decide to buy a few books on this subject) I often get asked to recommend books on TA and or Charting. I think I may save a canned response to disk. I started trading/investing, for myself, in the mid eighties. I bought several software programs that came with good literature. Something you don't get now days. One of the programs was primarily a supplemental program for the other. It was to help one develop (one's own) trading formulas and strategies. It came with a book that was an informative overview of technical analysis and charting. I am basically self taught having charted the major market indices, funds and stocks for over 12 years every single trading day. So, I defer to others recommendations as to which current books are good. If you could also give a few good web site on this subject, that would be nice chartpatterns.com decisionpoint.com hardrightedge.com smotass.net equis.com angelfire.com What I learned in school was that the market goes up and down randomly, therefore you cannot predict any better than 50/50. If this is true, obviously this site is useless. But I see such a great popularity of MDA among SI users, you guys must be doing better than 50/50 odds What school was that? Let me tell you a little secret, if you could go to school and learn how to successfully invest, we would all have gone and no one would loose money. And, most likely if your teacher was successful in the Market he/she would be doing that instead of teaching. If you think this site is useless why are you here? Better yet, why are you asking me to be a nice guy and provide you with all the information I just provided? In your past experience... could you please share with me what is the % of predicting the direction of the market correctly in each categories? - 5 min. in to the future - 30 min. - 1 hour - 1 day - 1 week - 1 month If you can get better than 50% on any of the above category, then it is definitely worth it to study. Otherwise I should spend my time somewhere else. I do not have statistics on the above, obviously you are a “newbie” or you would know that. What, didn't your school teach you that at a no better than a 50/50 probability you can only break even in the market at best, right? I could post how far my portfolio is up, but that is personal, let's just say it's almost a living. I suggest with your pre-conceived notions, that you may well be better off not wasting your time reading such a useless thread. Heck, why did you join SI? Regards, LG

To: Jon K. who wrote (1111)	12/9/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

OT I currently am lending it to someone so I can't recall the exact title but I believe it is close to "Technical Analysis Explained" by Martin Pring. I think this would get you started. He covers basic formations, how to interpret volume and some of the basic Stochastic, and MACD type helpers. Also try "Trading for a living" and the "Electronic Daytrader" "Market Wizards" as someone else recomended is a definite recommend. It really shows the nerves required at times to be successful at this. I love the showdown between the two big guns where they know they are opposite each other but don't know if the other is hedged as expiration ticks closer and closer to see who blinks. Last, after you do some reading on TA and understand some of the more common patterns, read this thread and then look at the charts as they are described and see how the patterns worked out. I am a mix of FA and TA for position trades but for daytrading, I hate to say it but sometimes you don't even need to know the company at all and you can still scalp profits just playing the patterns if you find a good one. (Not suggesting this at all!!!!) TA is an art, not an exact science. See how many of us on this thread see the same chart everyday yet interpret them in different ways. Sometimes, we are all right just for different reasons. However as LG pointed out, you can't have a closed mind or you will see in a chart what you want to see. That is why this thread is popular, we share ideas and prompt each other to look at things we may have missed or needed to tilt our head a certain way.<g> As for success rates, there is more to trading than knowing the direction a majority of the time. Money management (my weakness) has a MAJOR part also. I know some traders on other strings here at SI that are wrong more than they are right yet they make a lot of money because they know when to fold and when to double their bets. Last of all, paper trade before you try this with real money. Real money is different because your emotions play with you more but at least if you can get REALLY good on paper, you MIGHT have a chance once you see real losers that are taking your future away or winners that make you want to cut and run too early or stay in so long your win becomes a loss. Learn, learn and keep learning. You never know enough. I should change my favorite quote on my SI profile. A loooong time ago, I was graced with early success (huge bull market, any guess was right <g>) and I remember saying, "shoot, this is easy. Everyone makes this so complicated, all you have to do is ...." Years later, it is more and more a struggle as this bull market gets more and more tired. Ask the DELL heads. All they had to do was buy DELL and hold, millionairs were made. But those days are over IMO. Thus the popular question, who is the next DELL? Good Luck, Lee