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Strategies & Market Trends : Grain Futures Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High Grader who wrote (327)	12/10/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 645

HG, Thanks for posting the chart. It seems that your count was right, as prices are heading lower. It is interesting that beans made a distinct five wave advance off of the 9/1/98 lows, while oats and corn have traced out corrective patterns (not impulsive upmoves). Beans are the only grain to have finished their bear market... at least to my satisfaction. Something I have noticed recently is the excessively high carrying charge premiums between the front month and a contract say... 6-7 months out, in corn, oats, and wheat. The carrying charge premium in all three is high... especially when compared to beans. This high premium should act as a lid on prices. Put another way- prices may or may not go lower... but so long as the distant contracts have high premiums, a meaningful low cannot be formed, imo. At the same time the lower carrying charge premium on beans is not negative... and may well be a positive, since there is no downward bias priced into the forward contracts. FWIW, talk to you later Regards, Frank