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Technology Stocks : Xilinx (XLNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (2134)	12/10/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: Lewis M. Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3291

FYI, here's my calculation and first call consensus: Qtr My Guess First Call Dec $0.40 $0.40 Mar $0.42 (5%) $0.45 Jun $0.45 (8%) $0.48 Sep $0.49 (10%) $0.50 ----- ----- $1.76 $1.83 Let's assume that I am closer than First Call (or let's be more conservative). The lowest PE XLNX has had in the last two years is 19. That's $33. Ok, could happen. Highest has been 43. That's $75. Ok, could happen. 95 was a great year. If 99 is a great hear, high was 59 - that's $103. Not likely. My point here is that let's assume that my EPS guess is good (or low). Then the market mentality will set the PE. Current momentum has proved to support 32 forward PE ($58 / $1.76) or better. I would put 30 as the low PE going forward (that's $52) barring some unforseen shocking event from Asia or a slur of earnings warnings. If the lack of earnings warnings continue, I think PE 40 is sustainable - which puts us back at $70. So what am I going to do... Wait/hope for $52 and buy. If I get 52, I will hold until it hits 70 then take my profits. How long will that take? Depends on market mentality...