To: VALUESPEC who wrote (2778 ) 12/10/1998 12:45:00 PM From: Frank Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3627
Valuespec, I did not think I'd be sending anything until next year, but a few things have changed that have given me some pause and to reduce, slightly, my position in CD, and to liquidate all of my other holdings across the board. As you know, at about 1:00PM the Republicans are going to be giving the argument for impeachment. They will also release the testimony from the deposition, that, unlike the grand jury testimony, was directly related to the P. Jones fiasco. Anyway, there are moderate Republicans and Democrats who are still on the fence with this impeachment business, but Ollie North was on Geraldo last night on CNBC and reminded me that the everybody will be voting their concious at, what is likely, from a procedural perspective to be an impeachment vote first, followed by a censure vote. I once ran for politics and got a flavor for this, "Concious," business, and unfortunately, while the polls reflect a general sentiment not to impeach, they, by their natures will feel oblidged to vote for impeachment. Clinton did lie, even if technically it might legally be considered accurate. Now, I admit that I could be wrong, but if impeachment is passed by this congress it will have a significant impact on the economy, and could effect growth rates for Housing Starts, Travel, etc. This is a fundamental issue that would directly effect CD's growth rates and its long term valuation. This also implies some significant market risk until this issue is resolved. Elaine Garzarelli, had mentioned her avoidance of plunging into the market until this issue had been resolved, a number of months ago. Her timing was poor, because the market just seemed to bounce back, but her insight at the time was still accurate. Now, there is upside potential if impeachment is averted, but if impeachment occurs, I'd expect a big time move downward, very shortly. You mentioned adding to your position, I just thought I'd suggest that, perhaps a little caution until next week might be a good idea. Just a suggestion.