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To: BGR who wrote (84552)12/10/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: AmericanVoter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Apratim, sorry for the delay in responding...

"Note that as long as the MM was continuing the manipulation, (s)he was losing money, .... IOW, the MM successfully pushed the price down but not profitably."

that is true, but not for long, and the bet is that the momentum created by the public later will push the price down further... where the MM can buy back and replenish inventory

"Next, the assumption that the downward momentum continues afterwards is akin to predicting the future of equity price trends w/o external forces....."

I agree, however, it's a bet, and the one who has more shares or more money can outbluff the others because they can not call his/her bluff...

"What determines the final starting buyback price of 60?..."

Apratim, it does not have to be a certain price, it can be a drop range... say 20 or 30 points... and you have to keep in mind, that in a sell off, MM don't have to sell... they can just keep buying what is offered... and only when what is offered is a large enough pool at the desired low price...

and the MM don't have to be colluding, one can start it, the others just realize it, and join in for the free lunch...

Apratim, it's only a hypothesis... if we look at the market that way, and try to identify what moves it, we might see things that way, or we may not... but one really doesn't know for sure...

best regards
amein