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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (20375)	12/10/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jay, I do not want to argue with your numbers, but even your numbers come to around a billion not $6 billions. By the way, I was under the impression that CYMI would offer life time warranties under service contracts. In the MRI business (machines selling in the $1 to $2 MM) the warranty cost is about 10% of the initial cost per year (and users are fuming, considering this "excessive"). Do we have sources substantiating the roughly 20% to 30% service revenues per installed laser you cite? It seems on the high side at least as compared to other industries. Zeev

To: orkrious who wrote (20375)	12/10/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

The industry briefly saw a 1000/year rate and it gagged, so the full capacity is not a realistic value to use. I had a clever line about requiring litho machines in elementary schools to sustain such a level. Also power and speed of new lasers, larger wafers etc are factors against the need for -more- foundries. To assert otherwise is akin to believing the SIA's "uninterrupted 21.3% growth" model espoused in November 1995. Service revenue per laser should not increase much, unless the cost reduction program is a failure. The goal is for more dependable instruments requiring less downtime and less maintenance cost. The growth should be viewed as a pure upgrade of the current volume of fabs. Devices will require fewer and smaller chips for the same task. So as the inner layers are required to be .25 or better, DUV will be the light of choice. Competition may be advancing, although no significant inroads as yet. However a competitive cost solution at the low end may result from Komatsu and Lambda.