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To: Clarksterh who wrote (20386)	12/10/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Your point illustrates my statement, which I take it you didn't understand as I intended: The growth should be viewed as a pure upgrade of the current volume of fabs. <( By volume, I mean floor space. Still in oversupply of fab floor space)> Significantly more than 50% of factory capacity is currently at greater than 0.25u and doesn't use DUV. So this is where growth of DUV lasers will come from. Upgrading the fabs at the larger size to smaller (or replacing them). If you live in Texas or in my area of the country you whould know of a few fabs that have been planned but are now canned. New fabs aren't getting built, and the thought that new ones are needed without de-commissioning the old ones has been economically disproven in recent years. Greg

To: Clarksterh who wrote (20386)	12/10/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Clark, RE:Significantly more than 50% of factory capacity is currently at greater than 0.25u and doesn't use DUV. Additionally, this ignores the fact that as devices shrink further, more and more layers on each chip (even those already at less than 0.25u) will require DUV as some of the non-critical layers move from >0.25 to <0.25. The world's largest DRAM company, Samsung, is estimated to have 25% of its capacity at the 0.25&#181m level. This is not taking into consideration layers at sub-0.25, for which the number will increase as we move 256Mb, 1Gb, etc. Besides reducing debt, selling off operations can give Korean chip firms a cash infusion needed to modernize DRAM operations, said Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research. "They've got to invest in state-of-the-art production capacity," he said, estimating that Samsung has converted only about 25 percent of its capacity to quarter-micron. sumnet.com The world's future largest DRAM manufacturer, Micron, after TI fab upgrades, will be converting newly inherited fabs to 0.18/0.15. Then you have the Hyundai/LG combination. Hyundai currently has four 8-inch fabs in Korea that are being upgraded to sub-quarter-micron processing, and an 8-inch 0.22-micron fab in Eugene, Ore. LG Semicon operates five 8-inch fabs in South Korea, and has started converting some of them to sub-quarter micron processing. Both companies have unfinished superfabs on hold in the U.K. Hyundai is building one in Scotland and LG Semicon has one in Wales. It was unclear whether construction on either of these plants would resume after the merger. semibiznews.com That's not including the other world's 20 largest semiconductor companies. Bob

To: Clarksterh who wrote (20386)	12/11/1998 2:33:00 AM
From: Stu Bishop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Clark, re: "As for the assertion that increased efficiency will offset new fab growth - maybe, maybe not. ...why should they so happily cancel one another?" I agree. Increased efficiency is not a new phenomenon. Since there's been semiconductors, there's been a very rapid rate of improvement in speed, size, etc. At the same time, there's been fab growth. What's changed? Sure it's theoretically possible that no new fabs will be needed in the future, due to increased efficiency. But that's a profound statement, with no basis. Just as the anticipated, indefinite growth in 1995 failed to continue, so will the current trend fail to continue. One mistake investors make is to assume that trends will continue. Trends continue right up until they change. The current tech slowdown will come to an end; I guarantee it. Later. Stu B