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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9499)	12/10/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Chip Anderson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

glDoom has been released. glDoom is a shareware upgrade of the original Doom rendering engine which takes advantage of 3D Hardware acceleration. None of the gameplay or levels have changed, just the rendering. It looks great IMHO. Check it out at bluesnews.com - the official glDoom page is swamped right now. Chip "Space Marine" Anderson

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9499)	12/10/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: OGM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Sun Tzu, First, thanks for the great post. I'm not a TA person, but your FA insights are very enlightening too. Applying the current PSR (1.54) and PER (11.2) to the revenue=232mil and income=128 numbers yields a market cap of between $357 mil and $1,433 mil, respectively. Current market cap is $252 mil so the potential market price rise is between 41% and 468%. Of course, a company that was able to maintain 55% margins as these numbers suggest would be just about the most desirable company on the NASDAQ -- SG&A expenses almost always scale at some ratio as sales rise, so it's maybe useful to pull back the expectations a bit. Also, as many of the posts point out, it's still unclear whether the TDFX brand and reputation give it the pricing power that result in these kinds of margins. The good news is they seem to be as aware of that as anyone, and also seem to be delivering on a brand-building plan. Having sold software to the OEM market before, I can vouch for (1) the desire of OEM's to reduce risk by not necessarily bundling the state of the art product (2) the value of an OEM agreement to the seller -- it becomes a base for sales and also provides clout. In short, still seems that there's a lot of upside potential for the stock, but not necessarily off-set by the downside risk which other posts have pointed out in detail. Thanks again, -OGM

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9499)	12/11/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

<<BTW, it is very important for 3Dfx to maintain the loyalty of avid gamers so that it can keep its reputation as a quality graphics company among the general public. When average user wants to know what is a good company, he does not read the magazine reviews.>> This premise is false. If it were true ATI would be bankrupt. It is this paradigm that most on this board seem to be married to and I happen to vehemently disagree with. Pat P.S. I do not believe 3dfx has abandoned the high-end market. I think we will see this in short order.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9499)	12/11/1998 7:48:00 AM
From: Michael G. Potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Sun Tzu, 3Dfx did call me back yesterday. The guy I talked to was inFiance, so he couldn't anser some of your questions, but he will try and get back to me. I'll post a longer summary of my discussion later, but the gist of it is that they're comfortable with the current eps estimates (my opinion - some upside potential) and that their balance sheet will be a little better and they should be cash positive this quarter. I think your 10% of 30% is low. If the computer market is 100 million units and 3Dfx captures pieces of both household and business machines (remember, Banshee is going into Gateway's Small Business machines as well and V3 should expand their share here). ATi has about a 30% share (and they're expanding into laptops even though their desktop share is being eaten into somewhat). If 3Dfx does 1/2 as well, then they'll have 15 million units next year. Michael