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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis V. who wrote (5890)	12/10/1998 7:08:00 PM
From: Tmoore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Maybe one of you heavy hitters can buy this report: prgguide.com From the description, it bodes well for the lithium battery market in the USA. Tmoore

To: Dennis V. who wrote (5890)	12/10/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Getting impatient? Some revised numbers. After some feedback, here is my revised guess as to how good it could get by the end of next year. It includes revenues from GM Delphi, two joint ventures and production from four assembly machines in Valence's Northern Ireland plant. For the most part, I have lowered net profit to 33% of estimated gross sales from 40%. 50% profits on 1mln cellphone batteries/mo from Hanil JV ---$24mln/30mln sh = ----------------------------$0.66/sh 100% profits on 1mln cellphone batt/mo by Valence on identical Arcotronics line-----$48mln/30mln sh----------$1.32/sh 50% profits of additional production line from Hanil JV -----------------------------------------------------$0.25/sh 90% profits on the army's $15,000 OICW (objective individual combat weapon) that an Alliant Tech spokesman stated that Valence will build batteries for, to replace the now-standard M16 rifle. No telling when govt will announce. These numbers are no more than a wild guess. Est 300,000 rifles x $200/batt x 33% profit = $19.8 mln/30mln -----------------------------------------------------$0.66/sh 50% of other Alliant/Valence JV profits on Seal propulsion, combat vest batteries etc. very rough estimate 50% of $30mln--------------------------------------------$0.50/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Delphi automotive and royalties for SLI (starting lights ignition) batteries replacing conventional lead-acid batteries on certain GM models-----$0.30/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Dephi for Vehicle propulsion batteries------------------------------------------$0.30/sh 2.5 mln laptop batteries from line 1 at $75 each x 33% profit/30mln--------------------------------------$2.08/sh 10 mln unnamed application batt at $6 each x 40% profit/30mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.67/sh 25,000 unnamed application batt at $1000 each x 33% 30mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.25/sh Estimated total possible earnings--------------$7.00/sh Possible license agreements with such companies as Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Sony or Matsushita etc. were not included. I have heard estimates that revenue from license agreements could exceed earnings from Valence's own production. Some related links exchange2000.com exchange2000.com exchange2000.com exchange2000.com Applying a multiple of 20 times earnings would indicate a $140 share price if all the above come true, with the exception of joint venture income, which could add significantly more. I must admit I too have gotten pessimistic lately, so I have been discounting my calculations by 50%. So being pessimistic, I would expect an outcome only half as good as it looks. $3.50 earnings x 20 PE equals only $70 if they don't do any license agreements. For me, it's still enough to continue owning as many shares as I can afford and reason to continue accumulating, especially in the single digits. I continue to rate Valence's chance of failure at less than 0.1 %