Here is a piece by the Director of the Office of Emergency Management for Miami-Dade County, Florida. He first comments on a just-completed survey of fire, police, EMS, emergency, and military agencies on Y2K preparedness. Results are mixed. Next, he takes up the issue of community preparedness: that is, for how long a period should people prepare? Since the surveyed agencies varied widely in their estimations of Y2K(all the way from hoax to meltdown), Chief Lanza says that it is necessary to set "realistic" goals for community preparedness. For his own community, his goal is to ensure that 100% of local residents will be prepared for 14 days.
Global Problems with Local Solutions
By Chuck Lanza
December 11, 1998
There are so many Y2K surveys going around that I was not
sparked to complete them anymore. But now that some of the
results are being released my interest has been renewed. Just
last week I received the preliminary results of a survey
conducted between November 12 and December 2, 1998 by
the Emergency Response and Research Institute (ERRI) of
Chicago. Clark Staten, Executive Director of ERRI,
commissioned the survey of fire, police, EMS, disaster, and
military agencies in the United States and Canada to gauge
government response agencies' Y2K preparedness.
The Emergency Response and Research Institute has been a long-time favorite of
mine as my background before Emergency Management was the fire service,
particularly emergency medical services. ERRI's coverage of activities in the
emergency response arena is unparalleled. Raw data from the survey offers some
insight into the preparedness activities and level of understanding of Y2K issues by
governmental response organizations. Many of the responses are heartening. For
example, 100% of the respondents have heard of the Y2K Problem and 78.7% say
their organization has developed an "internal" plan for fixing the problem. On a
disheartening note, only 29.7% have a plan to deal with responding to community
problems. Alarmingly 61.7% say their agency has not "developed effective
contingency plans for the 'external' effects of possible Y2K problems."
The first responders are split on their department's preparedness with 43.7% saying they are ready, and 46.8% saying they are not. When asked whom they are working with to prepare the community, the answers are state and federal governments, 6.3%
and 5.3% respectively, while power companies and telecommunications both are 9.5%.
In terms of sharing studies, information, threat assessments and contingency plans with other agencies, only 54.5% are willing to do that. Now that is a major concern to me and should be to everyone who is undertaking response planning. In an analysis of the survey data, Paul Anderson states "ERRI would have thought that a much larger percentage of the respondents would want to share information or ideas
concerning the emerging Y2K issue." The well-worn clichÇ "reinventing the wheel" is what comes to mind. There is an emerging pool of good Y2K preparedness programs and procedures that can be fine-tuned for use by many communities. There have been untold hours committed to creating workable basic plans that can and should be adopted and incorporated into response initiatives.
As for other surveys, FEMA has one that is being administered by the International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM). The survey is constructed similar to ERRI's with the exception that it allows for narrative responses to several questions. The intent is to glean information that will provide the President's Council of Year 2000 Conversion an initial assessment of agency Y2K planning. The narrative
sections provide responders an opportunity to make clear and specific
recommendations on successful Y2K models and to present unique problems that they face.
Last week I conducted my own nonscientific survey when I asked for topics to
address in future columns. The responses were plentiful and telling. Two major areas
of concern were identified: personal preparedness and governmental inactivity. For
personal preparedness, the topics fit into two categories; first, how much food, water
and supplies are enough and second, how long will disruptions last. It seems to me
that we need to determine, if that is possible, the answer to the second question
before we can intelligently answer the first.
For some insight as to how long disruptions will last, the ERRI survey found that
responses ranged from 15.7% believing that Y2K is a hoax or vastly overblown and
having little effect to 5.2% stating it is a potential catastrophe in the making.
Commenting on this interesting divergence, Clark Staten said, "There seems to be
much confusion between sources, official and otherwise, about whether or not Y2K is
'real.'" Fortunately, 63.1% believe Y2K to be a serious problem, but one that can be
solved in time. Now does "solving the problem" mean fixing the computers or
mitigating the effects of disruptions?
We've heard it all before, both sides of the argument, no disruptions to "meltdown."
This wide range of possibilities makes it impossible to prepare a majority of the
residents of any community. Therefore, we need to establish a goal that is both
realistic and obtainable. In my community, the goal I am proposing is that 100% of
the residents will be self-sufficient for 14 days. My experience has shown me that
most people will not prepare for more than 14 days. In most cases, I have found that
3 days is more realistic. So telling people to prepare for ninety days or longer is not
going to move communities. In fact, our credibility can and will be lost if we are
perceived as making unreasonable requests.
Since we are not going to know the extent of Y2K disruptions, we need to base our
goal setting on things we can accomplish. Every household, self-sufficient for 14
days, is a reasonable and obtainable community goal.
y2ktimebomb.com
Incidentally, Emory, I am not worried about my neighbors' stealing my wood. I have great neighbors. We also have a Neighborhood Watch here, which I am sure would be more alert than ever in an emergency (in case outsiders came prowling around in search of wood).
jbe
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