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To: John Hunt who wrote (24114)	12/11/1998 6:01:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Respond to of 116972

The Derivatives Mess gold-eagle.com << Even though there was considerably less volume during the second half of the year, due to the Asian financial crisis, the OTC market had outstanding derivatives contracts with a national value of $29 trillion, up 14.1% from 1996. Turnover in exchange derivatives grew 11% according to the BIS. The survey covers currency swaps and interest rate swaps and options, but does not include credit and equity derivatives. The drop in second half volumes was attributed to a drop in interest rate swaps in EU currencies in the emerging markets. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is seeking regulatory approval to trade futures and options contracts offering investors a means to hedge their holdings in U.S. real estate. There are some who say that there are $140 trillion in face value of derivatives outstanding in the world today and we agree. As you can see world markets are a giant casino. The BIS says there are $82.6 trillion worth. That is still twice the world's GDP, and five to six times the world's annual productive product. Those are 1996 figures, so if usage grew 15% in 1997 that figure would be $95 trillion, that they'll admit too. -- cont'd -- >>

To: John Hunt who wrote (24114)	12/11/1998 6:11:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116972

Y2K bug is indeed a Y99 management problem gold-eagle.com << There are a number of alarmists, I will call them "Pessimists", predicting doom and gloom scenario due to the Y2K computer glitch. There is a talk of bank runs, widespread power failures, water supply disruptions, telecommunication faults, airplanes falling from the sky, computer screens going blank at nuclear sites, recession, depression and worse. Doomsday prophets suggest that it is going to be the End of the World as we know it…. There being an equal number of Moderates, I will choose to label them as "Optimists", who say that the predictions of the alarmists are exaggerated. They say that a talk of bank run is nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy. They claim that airplanes would not fly off the sky. According to them there would be power disruptions and water supply failures but only for a few days and certainly not widespread. They advocate that it would be sufficient to stock extra food and drinking water to last out for a few days. They suggest that some extra cash (maybe two week's salary), fuel, medical supplies and a small generator are more or less enough to tide the crisis. I haven't yet read a report that says "there will be no disruptions". -- cont'd -- >>