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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed who wrote (13125)	12/11/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

I see a lot of numbers about MSFT price next year. I think it will go to an 85 forward PE based on 2000 est by June. Anybody done their "DD" and know what that number would be?

To: ed who wrote (13125)	12/11/1998 1:49:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Ed, No, Haven't sold the shares for the down payment yet. Bought at 102 in Sept, Wrote Jan 130 cov. calls, will get called away (hopefully). That I plan to use for down payment on home. As Sonki said earlier, I have a heavy concentration on MSFT long positions and if it hits $250 in 1999, I probably can retire by paying off the mortgage and leaving funds for kids education. Wouldn't that be sweet. But $250 in 99 is unrealistic, I am not doing any planning on such a price. As I saw in July, when the PE gets richer (60+), Microsoft executives start talking the stock down and thus I expect a max PE of 60 to 72 next in 99. With max trailing EPS of about $3.00 sometime in late 99, I can see how 72*3 => 216 can be reached. But I don't see 250. Also, when times are bad (like when the dow hit 7400 3 months ago), the PE on MSFT also comes down to as low as 45 or so, that is why I think there is risk of the stock touching 110 again in the first half of the year. If it does hit ~110, I plan to buy more. [I am pretty honest in my opinions, I have no ax to grind,. I am not a wall street analyst, don't work for someone else's money. 3 months ago, the trailing PE was 45 when Dow was way down, I felt the stock was undervalued at 45 PE. Now at 68 PE, it is getting to be far too rich and is subject more short term downside risk] johnd