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Pastimes : From A to Zeev" -- SI Sacks Zeev -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mark Ivan who wrote (569)12/12/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 708
 
Mark, I do not know if VECO will hold $44 or not, but if it does , it is probably because the sector will be dropping. A number of brokers are starting to issue downgrades just based on the fantastic rise in the last two months. If that happens, who knows how low we could go again. We could match the lows set last October (I say "could", but I do not think it is likely). We must remember that there is still great paucity of announcement of new fabs, in the hay days, we were at an annual rate of 20 new fabs per year or so, now we are not even at 10. VECO is not so heavily tied up to new fabs, but the market is painting VECO as "another semi equipment" company, and I have a feeling that the equipment segment will under perform relative to the chips companies over the next six months. If the equipment segment just under performs, but the sox in general remains in a bullish mood, VECO will be a star amongst the equipment companies, IMHO, and thus a SL at $43.5 protects you against a major drop and let you play the "above 60" scenario if it develops.

My turnips are turning paler by the day, and I fear that my targtet of 8650 may be breached before the end of the year, if it does, and if the SOX breaches 310, it will be time to run for the hills again.

Zeev