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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21906)	12/11/1998 9:45:00 AM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

How low are they going to let it go before reversing, IYO? (In Your Opinion) :)

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21906)	12/11/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: Coz	Respond to of 50167

Ike, Do you think that this downturn is mostly related to the Clinton impeachment hearings? Would you expect this to turn around once it goes to the Senate and is resolved? Thanks, Coz

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21906)	12/12/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: Ross	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ, I'm curious your thoughts on the president's possible impeachment (with regards to the overall market).. It would seem, to me, that the American investing public (and institutional)may have already factored in the worst case scenario. Much like a sick relative on the verge of death for months, the eventual reality (death)is almost a relief. You seem wise in these areas and your feelings would be apreciated.. Ross

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21906)	12/13/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 50167

Hi IKE just some musings for the coming week.... I've looked at P&F for the SPX-SOX-DJIA... SPX has now held 1155 support three 3 consecutive times...1170 is a 3 box reversal up, but i feel 1175 will contain any rally near term..My guess is that we are going to roll over and down, and break 1155 support, 4th time this area will NOT hold, then go to 1135, major support and a great buying opportunity IMO.. SOX--ALERT---RS just reversed into a column of O's which is negative..the SOX bounced off 330 which is a double bottom sell signal and the first in this awesome up trend...usually this first "sell" signal is false..345 is major resistance and it won't penitrate this level..if we reverse off 345 and print 325 we are going down to 300 and then 275..probably the bottom... DJIA...this index broke a double bottom at 8750, a 3 box reversal up to 8900 could lead to 9050, near term resistance...I feel we'll reverse off that short runnup and selloff down to 8350... With Impeachment a given in the House Vote on thurs...A major factor, IMO, because NOONE thought this was going to happen...Well it's a reality...Next is the FOMC meeting on Dec 22nd...NO RATE CUT this time..AG does his thing 3 quick moves and rests<g>...to watch it work or not... So IMO the bias is down...and of course IF AG does CUT...then ALL bets are off... hope your well, my regards, Jerry

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21906)	12/14/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: oexplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike: Thought it would be fun to look back on your and Jerry's difference of opinion. "IDEA" was so alone in it's bullish ways in early October. Favor's, Accampora, and Fleckenstein were loading up on puts while we were selling to them. They mocked us, and said the sky was falling in. The bull was dead by their own admission. SOXX at 190 was a short! Now, in late November, they have given in and admitted we were correct! They want to join the "dancing in the streets". The only problem "IDEA" was taking handsome profits,not showing up late for the party! Jerry would have nothing of MSFT at 95, or NOK.A at 60. Once again, we were right and they were wrong! Thought I'd pull a couple of back posts, one from Ike and one from Jerry. It's all to obvious that the pundits have once again missed the boat! Better luck next time Jerry! Read and enjoy and notice how 9 of 11 of Jerry's stocks are down considerably from where he bought them. To: James C. Mc Gowan (21633 ) From: IQBAL LATIF Tuesday, Nov 24 1998 5:18PM ET Reply # of 21922 James-- Very unwillingly I closed out all my remaining trading positions which I had placed between 6-8th Oct, the premiums were too rich to leave on the table, like GE 75 calls or MER 55 or CCI 35 BEN 30's and 40's IBM 120 and 130 NOKA 70 ans 90's and many others like this -- the risk reward and amount of money on the table just did not justify continuing the run with deep in the monies. I will recommend for anyone to shift strikes-- get out of deep in the monies and start playing it cool shift the positions to out of the money, get your cash and on dip enter to buy 'out of money strikes' with deep calender months, that is my strategy.. I started the year with 1,1 (the number of zeros in front I leave it to your imagination - please don't be miser about the number of zeros stretching your imagination would do no harm ggg), was by June 51% higher went down to as low as 19% on 8th Oct but rocketed up from 8th onward..Today at 1598 as NDX retreated from 1600 I thought 'to hell man' why to leave so much on the table, I don't have to be a hero, I asked Ray give me the 'net figure total run' although it is very unlike me-- OJ has given me this habit off late to keep checking, I am becoming a little mean about my performance, he told Ike it is 2,23 from Jan 1st my objective was a 100% return I reached my objective much earlier and was well beyond my target I decided to pull the trigger on 30% remaining positions. JPN and ASEA is not out although all the puts are squared.. I have now gotten out of my trading calls leaving my core portfolio intact-- I am thinking to move my strikes 'outside the money'. ASND EMC MSFT ALA STAYED ON AS THESE ARE LITTLE better placed in terms of breakouts.. I will now look to establish positions on NOK (target 115) and others outside the money calls and deeper calender strikes, I will like the NDX to move to 1555 before resuming the trend I will not re-enter until 1615 is broken twice, however will wait to enter at 1555 if we correct their -- if does not hold 1555 I will try to see what happens at 1520 or 1489 these are my levels where new entrants may enter. I agree I may be little early to exit the party but my father told me leave the last 5% for other firends I am very happy-- right now I am working on puts strategy, whatever one can say at the end of the day AMZN was down today. I am a contrarian I do what others don't want to do I am bit early have little 48 hours pain but at the end I am proven right, on AMZN my yesterday strategy was to use that as a hedge for my trading core I wanted my trading core to go expiry but it was too temting as I would love to atleast for one night maintain that 100+ result ..ggg I was making a decent return due to increase volatality towards the end today on py puts but I will not go out now, I am now preparing to play the market on this small move down.. but market shows me the direction my trade at the moment is let NDX take out 1615 or let it test 1555 -- Let market show me the direction if it wants to go higher let it take out 1615 or let it come on 1555, I will add either on a new breakout to 1750 or after retracement.. Party has started for me, I will see my levels on AMZN and I assure you that the play on some of these sectors my not be the way these guys think it is- I yesterday pointed out at 'transportation' as one of my favourite to move for me convergence between 'transportation and DOW' is a must if these bhumbo levels are to maintained, this will happen.. I will watch market like a hawk establish some long puts at the same time buying calls on sectors which I know will run soon and run big, this market is a very interesting market, I have met my objectives this year- I am now lethally poised-- the profits are in and the thread will look out for new opportunities.. JPN calls are still in trade for March and they don't loose premiums but I like your JEQ- I will test it- I will not like a speculative play- for me March and April minimum-- do combo's Jerry Favors Analysis - Monday, November 30, 8 p.m. Last evening we discussed the extreme readings we were seeing in the Put/Call ratioes and that readings in this area had for the most part occurred near at least short term tops in the Dow. We discussed the fact that the 3-Day Put/Call Ratio had reached its lowest reading in at least the last 4 years, which was as far back as we went for last evening's update. Prior readings even near last Friday's reading tended to occur near at least important short term tops. At the lows today the Dow was down as much as 216.53 points,and we closed at the lows of the day. In our last newsletter and on this hotline we stated that the Bradley Indicator called for rising prices from October 28 plus or minus 2 days into November 24 plus or minus 2 days. The Bradley then called for falling prices into December 2 plus or minus 2 days. So far the Dow has reached a high of 9380.20 on a print basis on November 24 exactly and so far has fallen 263 points to a low of 9116.55 on a print basis today, November 30. Now the Bradley calls for a low near December 2 plus or minus 2 days and then a rally into December 11 plus or minus 2 days. The Bradley has been so accurate this year we feel it could be a serious mistake to ignore its forecasts from here. It suggests a low in the next day or two and then a rally into December 11 plus or minus 2 days. With the Gann Quarterly Chart still pointing up and the Bradley calling for a low near December 2 plus or minus 2 days we have to conclude higher prices are coming,even if the Dow sells off significantly tomorrow. We still have projections calling for 9631 plus or minus 225 points intraday in the Dow. If the Dow rallies above 9458 intraday those projections will be confirmed. A rally above 9381 on a print basis in the Dow will suggest a test and probably rally above 9458 intraday in the Dow. Bottom line we look for a low in the Dow in the next day or two and the start of another rally.That rally should carry the Dow to new highs,into our upside projection. We will go long tomorrow if the Dow reaches 8992 with a stop of 8573 in the Dow. We may be a day or two early but we will take that risk. Stocks on our recommended list include: DAL, GE, ABT, BMY, AVT, LTD, MOT, BBY, MRK, Microsoft and Adobe.