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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (39117)	12/11/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

>>>>>expect a period of on the job training<<<<< Hi Mike, I see the CBOE has a travelling seminar. I know you think that CBOE material is simplistic, but do you think it would be worthwhile for a beginner? (Also, the next couple are in Naples, Florida, one of my favorite places.)

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (39117)	12/12/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

To All, Barron's was mediocre this week, but there were a couple of interesting items: 1. Abelson quotes Steve Leuthold, who used to work at either Dain, Bosworth or Piper, Jaffray in Minnesota and used to visit us regularly at The St. Paul. He is a bright guy, though not perfect as a forecaster, as is nobody. However, he intrigues me because his fair value of the Dow is just about exactly the same as my model has been kicking out. He says that the market should decline to somewhere below 4900 to reach fair value, and will go below 3900 if the market gets unreasonable on the downside. Of course, Steve uses discredited things like the real value of businesses that stocks represent and not the new pair of dimes. <G> 2. A couple of economists debate. Boring. 3. In a comic article, hedge fund manager Cedd Moses lets us in on the brilliant strategies that moved the assets in his fund from $400 million down to $80 million. Basically, he uses eps consensus estimates, for next year and buys what has been going up the fastest lately. For him, it is a great strategy. In the years when he rolls a seven, he gets 20% of the profits. In the years when he rolls craps, the fund's partners eat the losses. Buying a hedge fund like this is a good way to gamble at worse odds than a casino will offer you. 4. Epstein read the recent piece by Paul Krugman on "Slate" that I called evidence that the guy is a nutburger. He is nicer than that and politely points out how wrong this flavor of the month economist really is. The first article on Krugman the crackpot was interesting. This is just rubbing salt in his wounds, though Krugman did initiate this round by writing inane crapola on the Net. 5. I was worried last week because the "Market Watch" section was too bearish. I shouldn't have worried. This week it is all bulls and mostly brain dead bulls at that. Stephen Todd of The Todd Market Forecast says "Valuation? Forget it!" Just buy, buy and wave your money bye-bye. The first clause is his recommendation and the second is my editorial comment. Even Bert Dohmen of The Wellington Letter, who has not always been an idiot, says "go with the flow" and "don't ever say the market is wrong." I feel much better after reading these air heads. <G> MB