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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocket Red who wrote (966)	12/11/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: JL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Interesting post from the Californian's website... Geol Guy made a good stab at explaining the situation. But let's face it, it is not reassuring to see water being produced at this early stage. If it is being coned in from the zone which at first produced the strong gas flare, it could come from mobile water in the pore spaces although not usually in large enough volumes to extinguish a flare. But in larger volumes, more than likely, such water flows come from a zone of high water saturation deeper down that is coning up into the 17 feet of pay that have been penetrated. If the zone of high water saturation is far enough down and gas producing zone is thick enough, the well could hold some promise under prudent production practices. If the entire zone is fractured or if there are vertical fractures throughout the zone, you are f----d. Just ask the Amoco boys about a deep hot gas play (12,000 -15,000 ft at 350 deg F.)in northern Canada called Beaver River and Pointed Mountain that came on stream in the early 1970's. The normal flow tests showed that they had a huge reservoir but just to make sure they flow tested these wells at 50+ MMCFD for a full month I believe with pressure bombs in the hole with no sign of depletion or water. If my recollection is correct, the Beaver River field went on production at around 250 MMCFD for about a year before the ocean came in leaving one well to wimper along at about 5 MMCFD. The Pointed Mountain field produced for a longer period but had similar problems. Analysis showed that they had a fractured reservoir open to an active water drive west to the mountains. Porosity was divided in to matrix-type and fracture-type with most of the gas (volume and rate)being produced from the frature system. Once the pressures in the fracture systems started to drop, the water started to move essentially trapping the gas in the matrix part of the porosity resulting in early depletion and watering out of the wells. I believe the geological and engineering guys that were involved in that wrote a paper on that project and made a presentation to SPE in the middle 1970's. In the case of East Lost Hills, the play is large in areal extent. Now that the well is down and has almost reached it projected TD, full evaluation is pretty much required. The source of the water has to be determined through systematic testing and analysis and $$$. No amount of speculation is going to answer definitively anybody's concerns at this stage. But we have gone from "Yes, we have a well, a big well" to "Maybe...maybe." So hedge your bets. Food for consideration. JL