Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Geoff Nunn who wrote (2362)	12/12/1998 8:29:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2578

I'm expecting the general market to fall and DELL with it, Are we talking about weeks, months or years? Can you be specific? Also, what do you think the magnitudes of these declines will be? Weeks. Initial target on SPX is 1110. Then a little later 1020 after some consolidation. That would put in a new higher low vis a vis 8 October. In the positive scenario the market can then consolidate and begin to rise again more sustainably. Then this would begin to look more or less like 1994 and other short bear markets which last about a year but with a much bigger variance. However, I won't be surprised to see a further decline to about 800 if the news gets worse again. Given what seem reasonable earnings growth expectations that seems to me fair value. For DELL I stated a target of around 38 as a medium term bottom. The longer this is put off the higher I'd go with that. I can imagine some pretty reasonable scenarios to justify a price like that. From there on if growth is maintained the price would begin to rise again. Of course anything might happen..... David