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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chris who wrote (1497)12/12/1998 11:28:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 99985
 
Chris,

Always nice to hear from ya.

>>>>>>> nasdaq support at 2000, but momentum topping....... what i feel is that we are in a rolling correction... djia -> spx -> naz.<<<<

The DOW has already started pulling back, and the recent pullback has been stronger than I originally expected. It was faster, the volume was larger, and is lasting longer than expected. Of the last 13 trading days only 5 days were up, and of those 5 up-days, 3 of them were basicly insignificant gains(less than 25 points).

The SPX, for the last 2 weeks did better than the DOW, but it did form a double top last week. Some more decline is required to confirm that double-top, but so far its a good call.

The NAZ in the meantime set new highs, but the pullback in the SOX a few days ago may be giving the hint that it may also be topping out.

So, can we conclude that once the NAZ gives way - the market may go down in unison and harder?

Seeya



To: Chris who wrote (1497)12/12/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Daflye  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Ditto Chris, NDX should be the last to fall. I'm torn though. I think a retracement to near 1500 is possible, but it will probably take more than this week to do it. December puts are cheap, but short on time. Jan contracts offer plenty of time for the correction to complete, but lots of premium. If wrong on the depth of the pullback, you lose even more. Ah, the "rock and a hard place" of index options.
Later...
D