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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mojave who wrote (2456)	12/12/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

It was a BANANA Prudential's Acampora Says Dow Will Be 'Erratic' in 1999 New York, Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Ralph Acampora, Prudential Securities Inc.'s director of technical research, said he expects U.S. stocks to be ''erratic'' in 1999, although the bear market of July to October shouldn't repeat itself next year. ''I honestly believe the worst is behind us,'' Acampora said during his presentation of Prudential's technical outlook and projections for 1999. ''We got very close to a major problem, and I hope it sobered us up.'' Acampora said the market's decline in 1998 was in line with ''major market bottoms'' that usually occur every four years, and it sets the stage for a renewed bull market next year. He also expects continued volatility because of persisting economic woes in Asia and Brazil. ''We're not an island,'' he said. The market ''came apart because we have problems outside our borders and we came close to a global meltdown.'' Earlier this week Acampora said the Dow should trade between a low range of 7800 to 8450 and a high range of 9800 to 11,500 in 1999. He estimated the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will trade between a low of 1050 to 1090 and a high of 1350 to 1525. Acampora said the recent rally from a bear market resembled a ''banana,'' with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P Composite Index reaching record levels in November after bottoming out in October, though he noted 71 percent of S&P industry groups are still well below their record highs. ''No one should be surprised with a little weakness'' between now and the end of the year, Acampora said in an interview earlier today. He said the Dow's nearly 2000-point rise from Oct. 8 to early November ''overdid it a little bit.'' Acampora's Picks Acampora said he particularly likes telecommunications companies, including Sprint Corp. and MCI WorldCom Inc., tobacco stocks, such as Philip Morris Cos., and large computer stocks such as Microsoft Corp. and Dell Computer Corp. He proclaimed 1999 ''the year of the stock picker'' and urged investors to spend more time selecting individual stocks and pay more attention to mid-size and small stocks. He favors mid-size companies, including retailer AnnTaylor Stores Corp. and publisher Scholastic Corp., and small capitalization stocks, such as C-Cube Microsystems Inc., a provider of digital video technology. The Dow fell 19.82 to 8821.76. The S&P 500 rose 1.44 to 1166.46. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: mojave who wrote (2456)	12/13/1998 6:49:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Mojave: Re: "It's funny that Bob always talks about the S$P 500 being so important yet when he is quoted in Barrons on the bull run of the 90's he uses the level of the Dow in 1990 as a barometer for this "great bull run"." When most people talk of the market, they think of the DOW even though it is a small cross-section of the overall market. So the DOW is a talking point of reference. Re: "If the Dow tanks, so to will the S$P 500. No way around it!" I am not so sure. DOW down 6% from its highs and the S & P is down 2%. There is a factor of three difference. And so if the trend continues, DOW could be down 12% and the S & P could be down 4%. Hardly a tank in the S & P at 4%. DOW is much more cyclical and in this environment cyclicals will underperform.

To: mojave who wrote (2456)	12/13/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 15132

Mojave, The Brink says that based on various factors the DOW is temporarily not a valid indicator of market conditions. During the long Bull run up it was, so, that is why he probably used it in his newsletter. Jeff