To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (4835 ) 12/13/1998 9:21:00 PM From: MonsieurGonzo Respond to
DJ; RE:" H&S on DJIA-30 and DAX-30 "It's my selling day today. H&S on DAX, yeah... altough the right shoulder happened just too early to look nominal. Things look bad though, especially with dollar down that far... was that last (Friday's) candlestick: a Hammer or a Hanging Man ? Always a dilemma until "confirmation" {grin}if this was a textbook H&S on the DJIA-30, and if the "head" was ~9350 and the "neckline" was ~8850, the old textbook says that the downside far-target is supposed to be 8850 minus 500 = ~8350.completely different (^_^)MSH.X - Morgan Stanley HighTech Index , which is in essence the NDX.X - NASDAQ 100 Index ... over the longer term. Converting NDX.X to a semi-log scale, it appears that the "close-your-eyes, buy-and-hold" strategy that 'fits' (weekly and monthly stochastics, etc) best is to buy every ~20% step gain from basis = NDX 550.1642 / 1369 weekly chart is a pretty good long-term "close-your-eyes, buy-and-hold" indicator, FWIW - the average TechSpaetzle fund-type investor would have to work hard to do much better than buying when the NDX.X gets near the 50w EMA on the weekly chart.above ; ie., "retracement", slightly beats just buying at each level and holding through the ensuing retracement/consolidation - but in the long-term, the difference is slight at 8.5% APR yield on the cash you are holding whilst the index ain't growing.
