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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hcirteg who wrote (6415)	12/12/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: chichi	Respond to of 7841

hcirteg- I agree that there is a chance that market could pull back and that SEG needs support to go higher, but I will give you my reasons that the stock will go up. You must have missed the news from yesterday- that there is a major shortage of drives at SEG and they are increasing production to meet demand. (I read this story on Bloomberg, and it is posted on SEG Fundamental thread). There has also been positive comments by WDC CEO recently about demand and pricing for the industry. The outlook is much brighter now than it was a few months ago: hence the run-up in DD stock prices. The year-end activity and tax effect can only be beneficial to SEG stock price. Portfolio managers will want to have a stock in their portfolio that is up 60% on the year, and 50% for the quarter, and get rid of a stock that has not performed well- window dressing. And investors will not want to sell SEG and pay capital gains tax, especially in a good year for the broad market (there generally will be more winners and less losers in a portfolio, which means that there is a better chance of already existing gains to pay taxes on). I think the stock will continue to go higher right up to earnings in January- which will be good for a change. Without any significant negative changes on the outlook, I will stay long SEG By the way, why are you attacking Stitch? I am sure i am not the only one on this thread who appreciates his insight. chichi

To: hcirteg who wrote (6415)	12/12/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

hcirteg; <<I am not going to let you pull me into a cat fight>> Your second post goes a long way to explain your thinking and offsets what had been a rather glib post of the kind so often seen here. At least now we have some idea of your rationale. Here are my answers to your questions: <<If the market can rise 1500-2000 points in 45 days, then why can it not fall 500 more to 8200 in the next 15?>> Certainly it can but I do not see it. I see instead some pressure on tech stocks due to profit talking and year end positioning. In general I think we are going to tread water for a while with earnings report positioning working against the mania. But I think earnings among the techs are going to spur a new round of buying in late January. Seagate will be a beneficiary. I am holding the balance from a sale of half of my SEG (as posted previously). <<SEG has gone from the low 20's to the mid 30's...almost a 75% rise in 60 days. Is it so wrong to think there will be weakness in the stock now...especially after such a huge run up? Do you understand the concept that nothing, and I mean nothing, goes straight up? >> Seagate is a solid long term investment IMO but reason should prevail. Do what you gotta do. <<My reasoning is not cheap hype, your reaction to it is childish.>> Thats just it, there was no reasoning in your first post. It was a typical gun slinging, glib statement. My reaction to it wasn't childish at all and next time you prognosticate in such a broad sweeping fashion you may want to consider offering a rationale. <<Your reaction to my very straight forward and justified posts leads me to beleive you are very long and perhaps very bitter. I am sorry for that.>> You allude to assumptions with no basis. It puts your comments in proper perspective now that we know how you think. My reaction was to you and your statement. Not my holdings or my position which I am very very happy with thanks. I am well into the money on SEG for the year havng sold half my holdings a couple of weeks ago. Your remark strikes me as the typical hubris of a gun slinging loud mouth. <<Now my question to you STICH....WHY do you think that SEG is going up in the short term? >> Who the hell said I did? What I am saying, however, is that you are dead wrong about the market. It won't hit 8200 before the end of the year. Try not to put thoughts or words in my mouth, posts whatever. You have enough trouble with your own. <<Check out my posts on my other stocks...>> No thanks. (For obvious reasons.) Stitch