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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MHS who wrote (5923)	12/12/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Mark Johnson	Respond to of 27311

MHS: You're right taking something off the Yahoo Board is generally a waste of time. The poster "nowaynohow" is a chronic pessimist that has claimed to have traded in and out of Valence profiting each time. Best to disregard anything he has to post. The point is the market has valued Valence higher now than in anytime in the last 52 weeks. Lev said the analysts were "blown away" while viewing a totally operational production facility with 270 employees. Lev said when he took over as CEO that he thought Valence would dominate the world rechargeable battery market. I think if you are patient your investment in Valence will pay off!

To: MHS who wrote (5923)	12/12/1998 4:06:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

MHS, I think 30 mln shares is more accurate, but let's try 40 mln on for size. How bad would such a doomsdayers scenareo hurt us? Here's a modified set of estimates. 50% profits on 1mln cellphone batteries/mo from Hanil JV ---$20mln/40mln sh = ----------------------------$0.50/sh 100% profits on 1mln cellphone batt/mo by Valence on identical Arcotronics line-----$40mln/40mln sh----------$1.00/sh 50% profits of additional production line from Hanil JV -----------------------------------------------------$0.19/sh 90% profits on the army's $15,000 OICW (objective individual combat weapon) that an Alliant Tech spokesman stated that Valence will build batteries for, to replace the now-standard M16 rifle. No telling when govt will announce. These numbers are no more than a wild guess. Est 300,000 rifles x $200/batt x 33% profit = $19.8 mln/30mln -----------------------------------------------------$0.38/sh 50% of other Alliant/Valence JV profits on Seal propulsion, combat vest batteries etc. very rough estimate 50% of $30mln--------------------------------------------$0.38/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Delphi automotive and royalties for SLI (starting lights ignition) batteries replacing conventional lead-acid batteries on certain GM models-----$0.22/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Dephi for Vehicle propulsion batteries------------------------------------------$0.22/sh 2.5 mln laptop batteries from line 1 at $75 each x 33% profit/40mln--------------------------------------$1.56/sh 10 mln unnamed application batt at $6 each x 40% profit/40mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.50/sh 25,000 unnamed application batt at $1000 each x 33% 30mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.19/sh Estimated total earnings at 40 mln sh dilution---$5.25/sh Possible license agreements with such companies as Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Sony or Matsushita etc. were not included. I have heard estimates that revenue from license agreements could exceed earnings from Valence's own production. Some related links exchange2000.com exchange2000.com exchange2000.com exchange2000.com Applying a multiple of 20 times earnings would indicate a $105 share price with a worst-case 40 million share dilution, with the exception of license agreements, which could add significantly earnings. For me, it's more than enough to continue owning as many shares as I can afford and reason to continue accumulating, especially in the single digits. I continue to rate Valence's chance of failure at less than 0.1 % Another possibility not mentioned by the naysayers is that a portion of these profits will likely be used to expand and buy more equipment, reducing the earinings per share. Of course, a fast growing company may deserve a PE of 30 or 40, making earnings plowback a moot point in view of the effect on share price.