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Non-Tech : Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (686)	12/12/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2794

Hello to you and welcome to this foruum. Hope you will keep following the oil sector for us here and send us the news when it happens. Today this appeared in the Wall Street Journal vis a vis Nippon Credit Bank in Japan, "....Nippon Credit, established in 1957 to funnel funds to Japanese industry, had assets of more than 12 trillion yen ($102 billion) and more than 2,000 employees at the end of September. It forecast a parent pretax loss of 620 billion yen for the fiscal year through next March because of bad loan write-offs. Last month it disclosed about 3.2 trillion yen in bad or doubtful loans". Bad loans of more than $25 billion dollars? My goodness. And that is just what they... ADMIT TO. Thi, along with the general sickly Japanese insurance, pension and banking sectors (similary damaged) is a HUGE DELATIONARY EVENT... Mark...I'd look at the cost of natural gas, and then work forward saying that 3x to 5x the inputs from that sector will come onto the energy market world-wide, and then look at where you think the cost of oil will be in a 3 to 5 year time frame. This also is huge deflationary. Does anyone know the name of the company that is licensing the natural gas liquification process... to the big oil companies: this process enables natural gas to become a motor fuel additive??? Thanks beforehand. Best to you all, Clark

To: Mark Adams who wrote (686)	12/12/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2794

>We know that adding liquidity may not result in added consumption. We do? Real fed funds costs ~3.3%. The recent average is about 2%. The Fed has 475 basis points remaining to play with. They can drop the real fed funds rate to -1.5%, or more if you account for the inflationary effects. Do you have any idea the kind of consumption you can unleash with that? I doubt it. Of course, there's always someone who will bring up a specious comparison with Japan. The difference, of course, is that Japan's banking system is bankrupt and money pumping must by necessity first recapitalize the banks. >The government must take that liquidity and apply it to productive projects of some fashion- ie the International Space station, environmental remediation, research education etc. I say this though I dislike debt and deficit spending. Spoken like a true Keynesian. How about a tax cut instead? >They need to create enough work/demand to soak up the capacity, as many of us are busy enjoying our leisure and not thinking too much about how to apply our newfound wealth. At least not beyond throwing money at stocks and business managers who aren't sure how to deploy it. So the problem is that we're too rich, is it? This is an, umm, interesting notion. As for soaking up capacity, well. Hmm. Have you checked what the unemployment rate is? 4.4%... what was NAIRU supposed to be again?