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Technology Stocks : FileNet (Nasdaq: FILE) Time to Short? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CoffeePot who wrote (5)	12/12/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: WTSherman	Respond to of 12

It is very hard to imagine that FILE will be able to make a significant turnaround under current conditions. Their bread and butter is large deployments in Fortune 1000 co's. This market is largely saturated already with FILE's or its competitors products. In addition, these are exactly the kinds of accounts which are increasingly consummed by their Y2K efforts and are not risking new, non-critical application deployments until after the year 2000. Lastly, when FILE's new management came in they went out and hired large numbers of new sales and support people as part of a campaign to increase their sales by expanding to independent resellers(rather than their direct sales force). This was a huge mistake. Most everyone else in the industry was giving up on 3rd party sales forces, especially those from independent VAR's. EDMS and DIMS systems are long, complex sales that require highly trained and focused sales forces to sell efficiently. Most VAR's that have these kinds of sales forces already had products they were satisfied selling and would only given incremental efforts towards FILE's products. I don't know what this quarter will turn out like for FILE, but, I can't imagine it will be great. 1999 will be a huge challenge for FILE with the kind of overhead that is has. I'm neither long nor short this stock, but, if were going to do anything with FILE I would be shorting it, for sure.