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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Jones who wrote (356)	12/13/1998 1:07:00 AM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Dave; That's basic stuff we've known since the lessons of the thirties but I wish it were that simple. I agree that it doesn't make too much difference who's in the White House but impeachment is a very depressing spectacle and I believe, it does has a negative psychological effect. It is casting a grey pall over everything. No matter, what side of the fence your on with this, we were all taught that our Constitution was sacrosanct. Not to be played around with or trivialized. Seeing its most severe remedy, apart from war, being employed has to have an effect. We may recover quickly and I certainly hope we do but then again, we may not. It may leave deep scars like Vietnam did. That uncertainty and the fact that the gov't could be paralyzed for several months cannot be good for the market. Also, seeing any president in the docket, being humiliated, with the whole world watching it, live on CNN is unknown and uncontemplated in our lifetimes. This is an irritant too. The slowing down of corporate profit growth doesn't help either. Unfortunately, not everything can be rationalized in life. Some things are senseless, some have no purpose and as I get older, I learned try to maintain control of what I can and make the best of what I can't control. I think, what I am really saying is that there are larger forces at work here that engulf all of us and that includes, the stock market. It feels like a cold wind from Canada is beginning to sweep over us. If you have ever felt that wind you know, it is bitter. On a more positive note, Stitch seems to think that SEG will show profits soon and the stock will do very well. That is worthy of note since he has been bearish about the industry's current prospects until very recently. I agree, more cash would be smart and believe me, I hope I am completely wrong about all of this. Perhaps my thoughts are exaggerated. PHOTOMAN

To: David Jones who wrote (356)	12/16/1998 8:26:00 AM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1989

To All; Elaine Garzerelli, an analyst I do respect, appeared on CNBC last night. What she said was interesting. She is usually right but during the last crash she blew it. This time she said, that the corporate profit picture was poor and probably wouldn't improve until the third or fourth quarter of next year. (I can agree with that) However, she felt the market would rise 12-20%. She pointed out a strange fact that the market usually rises when corporate profits are falling. I guess, it is in anticipation of profits down the road. She believes the Dow will get to 10,000 and possibly 11,000. Also that, 10 yr. treasuries will go to 4% or near that. The low interest rate environment will carry us through. She also feels that the Tech. sector will lead the rest of the market, as well as, financials like banks because of it the low interest rates. Sounds like a good environment for SEG. Any comments? PHOTOMAN