Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (1546)	12/13/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I feel this market is much more bearish than Oct 1997, April and July of 1998. As was pointed out today in today's NY Times it is now becoming very probable that the US House will vote to Impeach Clinton later this week . However, The NyT observes that the Senate Trial will probably not be resolved until the middle of 1999. Just about nobody is aware that the Senate trial will not be resolved for half a year and it is a tremendous negative for the market. This gives Hussein, Israel and the PLO, North Korea, the nuclear quarrel between India and Pakistan, etc ample time to grow into major global showdowns. We already know of the record high valuations in the stock market, Price to book, dividend yield, P/E ratios, Equity Prices as a % of GDP, and that the US market is at a huge 44% of global stock market Capitalization. Add in the Asia Pacific Depression and the upcoming huge disruption of Y2K and we have all of the planets lining up (so to speak) for a bad time for the equity market. I sending along a Reuter's article from Friday to highlight the growing snowball of Y2k Best Regards, John Friday December 11, 6:44 PM Eastern Time Shipping needs "Y2K bug" attention -experts By Evelyn Leopold UNITED NATIONS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The shipping and maritime industries lag considerably behind worldwide attempts to eliminate the "millennium bug" computer problem, U.S. officials told a U.N. conference on Friday. John Koskinen, chairman of President Bill Clinton's council on the millennium problem, said Central Banks and telecommunications firms around the world had made considerable progress in updating financial systems. The aviation industry was beginning to move more aggressively, but shipping had "escaped attention," he said. As an example, he said, 95 percent of all goods coming into the United States arrived by sea and "much less has been done in this area" to tackle problems expected with computer systems at the start of the year 2000, he told a news conference. The U.N. conference, attended by specialists and officials from more than 120 countries, was the world body's first to determine how quickly nations are upgrading computer systems and to advise developing countries where to get help. In what one official called "a race against time," companies and governments are working to head off computer problems expected in 2000, when systems using old software could mistake the double "00" in the year as standing for "1900" and crash, or corrupt or lose data. Uncorrected, the flaw has the potential to cause widespread gridlock, shutting down banks, power plants and transportation networks. Shipping industry experts have said that the bug could lead to navigational equipment failure, resulting in delays in cargo delivery and loss of revenue. Pakistani ambassador Ahmad Kamal, chairman of the U.N. Economic and Social Council's working group on informatics, said participants were asked in the closed-door conference to identify every sector and "find out where the breakdowns are going to be." He said national and regional "swat teams" should be organized to handle the situation after Jan. 1, 2000, because "disruptions can occur and possibly will occur." "One of the objectives is to start working on contingency planning and crisis management, which means to work on the assumption some of these systems will not be working," he added. Kamal said countries were urged to identify a senior executive to deal with the problem and then set up more formal relations with their neighbors. "We all know that we are competing in a race against time," he said. "Our problem is that we do not know how deep the problem is." U.S. Sen. Robert Bennett, head of the Senate Committee on the Year 2000, told reporters that for many attending the conference it was the first exposure to the issue "and that is a little scary." "Some countries had no awareness until a couple of weeks ago," said Bennett, a Utah Republican.