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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1554)	12/13/1998 3:05:00 AM
From: Daflye	Respond to of 99985

...and a good opinion at that. night night D

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1554)	12/13/1998 3:12:00 AM
From: Doug R	Respond to of 99985

Lee, Nice post. Every technician on SI is in agreement on the market's weakness. I think it's going to be nastier than most do though. IMO just the fact that everybody who has a good grasp of TA and market internals sees a down market indicates to me that it will very likely be nasty. The speed of the market lately won't allow for much time to decide. By the time everyone actually sees it happening, it will be almost over. Then there will be the usual double bottom that takes a couple weeks and a new rally will begin. Boy am I glad I went all cash on Friday. I had some good stocks but.... Doug R

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1554)	12/13/1998 4:35:00 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 99985

Lee,< The only exception I did see was the telecom sector> This could be explained by the fact that Telecoms are seen as defensive stocks..DD

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1554)	12/13/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LEE, What a good post. I will not bore all with my cynical view of the analysts/big boys, since your post says it so well. Seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1554)	12/13/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee; That was a well thought out post, the only one I would drop out as a broad market indicator is flex, her market cap is just to small to fit in with the others or make even a ripple to the over all liquid ability of the market cap. It's odd that the Tech sector in general is the only sector showing strength, and it's also not healthy, in the long run some one has to buy this stuff and if the wealth of the rest of market is in decline with hamburger flipping jobs holding up the employment numbers, just who do they think will be buying these toys next year. ------------------ They say inflation is under control, but they are looking in some rear view mirror and running that forward, already I see some of the tech toys, and cars going up in price. Not long ago I was looking at digital cameras thinking well these things will do like the rest of tech, and be better and cheaper in the near future, well they pushed the inventory out and digital cameras have doubled in price before they have even caught on good. ------------------ KO complained about the high dollar hurt profits, what a crock of bull, the dollar has been in a free fall for almost 3 months, and you can't have that without inflation soon to follow, well it may take several months but now any rise in the dollar will tempt foreign investors to get out of our blue chip stocks. -------------------- The market looks one way to us, but it looks all together like a bear market to foreigners, if they own MSFT and bought it with yen in Sept. then MSFT hasn't done so good for them. ------------------- I warned over 6 mos ago to keep an eye on the dollar, as once it falls that sets up a situation were we have to pay more for imports and like it or not we import more than we sell. The catch 22 , ( or second stage ) is when and if the dollar starts back up, then foreign investors that were trapped into holding our stocks will want to make an exit. In spite of the rise in the market since Sept.. the second top was at the expense of the dollar, and in global terms we never recovered from the July fall, and that is going to come back to haunt us. All greenspam did was bail out some of his friends. Yesterday with only a .22% down side to the DOW, the volume was 54 to 28 the downside. It looks like cash flow (184,237,332) total cap move (9,259,071,306) -------------------------- 184M was eased out of the Dow 30 stocks, this caused the market cap of those same 30 to drop 9.2B A hear a lot of noise on CNBC about 8600 to 8700 being the low and the time for people to buy the dip, but my indicators say if we go below 8650 then momentum will set in. 8650 seems to be a hinge point and I don't like the gamble of counting on a hinge. More is riding on the shenanigans in the currency market right now than earnings, we have de coupled from interest rates at this time, and when that happens the market is struggling to make up it's short term mind. It's really to fickle to call with any assurance, but the odds favor more down side. Jim

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1554)	12/13/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, LG , Don and everyone ... I'm too busy with other stuff to read all the posts here, so apologies if this has already come up. It appears to me that for the best part of 2 weeks, the tick has been very negative, and the adv/decline ratio supports this. Obviously many of the fundamentals don't seem to exist to maintain this index level ... however, it is my understanding that there are two contrarian forces at work at the moment to explain the divergence ... the negative tax loss selling ... and the positive end of year putting money to work by the fund managers. Given the earnings weakness with many of the bluechip companies (BofA, Mrk, P&G Union Carbide, Coke etc, etc,), is it not possible that the only place to put money is the blue chip tech names (the positive factor), whilst tax loss selling of the small & mid-caps that haven't performed so well continues. If that is the case ... surely it might just continue ??. I am 80%+ cash at the moment and see no hurry to rush into this market ... but the rising bluechip techies may just continue doing that imho. Any comments ?? Apologies again if this issue has been raised, and thanks in advance for your input Stephen