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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7704)	12/13/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: jbe	Respond to of 9980

MikeM, since you are from Florida, you might be interested in this response (mine) to the Observer article (headlined "Millenium Bug Panic Warning"), when it was posted on another thread: To: R. Bond (2931 ) From: jbe Sunday, Dec 13 1998 9:53AM ET Reply # of 2939 That headline is misleading, which may be why other papers have not carried the story. And it is not just the headline. Take this lead-in: "Start hoarding now, government tells families." Stocking up for two weeks is hoarding? That is contingency planning for a worst-case scenario? Where has this reporter been? A recent article by the head of Miami-Dade County's Office of Emergency Management also recommended that people stock up for a two-week period. Nobody, so far as I know, has screamed "Panic!" I posted that article to another Y2K forum here: Message 6793016 Let me quote the most relevant passage, where the Chief is commenting on a Y2K preparedness survey of the nation's fire, police, EMS, and military agencies: For some insight as to how long disruptions will last, the ERRI survey found that responses ranged from 15.7% believing that Y2K is a hoax or vastly overblown and having little effect to 5.2% stating it is a potential catastrophe in the making..... We've heard it all before, both sides of the argument, no disruptions to "meltdown." This wide range of possibilities makes it impossible to prepare a majority of the residents of any community. Therefore, we need to establish a goal that is both realistic and obtainable. In my community, the goal I am proposing is that 100% of the residents will be self-sufficient for 14 days. My experience has shown me that most people will not prepare for more than 14 days. In most cases, I have found that 3 days is more realistic. So telling people to prepare for ninety days or longer is not going to move communities. In fact, our credibility can and will be lost if we are perceived as making unreasonable requests. Since we are not going to know the extent of Y2K disruptions, we need to base our goal setting on things we can accomplish. Every household, self-sufficient for 14 days, is a reasonable and obtainable community goal. Sounds pretty sane (and un-panicked) to me. Could it be just that the Brits have no experience preparing for emergencies like hurricanes, floods, etc.? jbe Message 6812649

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7704)	12/14/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

Hello Mike. Thanks for your very good ideas. I will try to get you the link today but sometimes they take the articles "off" the site the following. The Manchehester Guardian is, I suppose, on everyone's list the number one or number two paper in Britain: the Independent being my other favorite. Returning to the topic of Asia we are realy coming unglued here. Really. I wanted to get the thread this mornings coments from the Wall Street Journal. FOR PRIVATE USE ONLY For Private correspondence only.... (C) WSJ DAVID P. HAMILTON Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TOKYO -- Japanese business conditions continued to deteriorate virtually across the board through December, defying earlier predictions of economic improvement by the end of the year, an influential business survey disclosed. The Bank of Japan's closely watched tankan, a quarterly survey of 9,129 companies, showed that major manufacturers found their business environment significantly worse in the last quarter of 1998 than in the previous period. The tankan's so-called diffusion index, which subtracts the percentage of companies who believe conditions are worsening from those who believe conditions are improving, worsened to minus 56 in the survey released Monday in Tokyo from minus 51 in the previous survey, which came out on Oct. 1. ....conditions are no better, and in many cases far worse, among nonmanufacturers and smaller firms. The diffusion index at major nonmanufacturers, for instance, fell to minus 41 in the current survey from minus 36 instead of improving to minus 31 as those companies had predicted. Small manufacturers found conditions even grimmer; their diffusion index fell to minus 60 from minus 56 -- tellingly, exactly what they had forecast for the latest survey, and the worst score ever reported for that sector. ....Japanese business is also expecting a much sharper fall in sales and profits than just three months ago. Among major manufacturers, sales in the year ending next March are now expected to fall 5%, compared with the 2.5% fall predicted in October. Big manufacturers expect pretax profit to slide 23% in the same period, down from a 10% decline expected previously. Similarly, small manufacturers expect pretax profits to fall 51% on sales that slide 7.8%, while small nonmanufacturers are predicting a 3.9% sales drop and a 15% decline in pretax profit. More ominously, companies from all sectors said they continue to have difficulty raising funds. Among smaller companies, for instance, a diffusion index measuring the willingness of financial institutions to lend fell to minus 22 from minus 20 in the previous survey. Even the larger companies, which traditionally have better credit histories and access to more funding alternatives, reported that their borrowing situation had declined to minus 36 from minus 33. Likely as a result, Japanese businesses also reported their own liquidity positions are growing worse. Major businesses said their liquidity diffusion index fell to minus seven from minus five, and they expect that to worsen further to minus 15 by March. Smaller firms said their liquidity problems remained unchanged, at a diffusion index of minus 25, although they also expect the index to fall to minus 36 by March". If anyone of you doubt that deflation now has iit's teeth into Asia now is the time to go to the library and read up about deflation. Look at the period 1929 to the bank crisis in the winter of 1933. Japan is the second largest country economically inthe world. The have written off Nippon Credit's bad debts at $25-30 billion. That is 1/100 th ofthe potential write off of the Japanese pension funds that have probably lost at least that much or perhaps more. While America buys bric a brac on e-bay...the modern equivalent of Nero's lute playing as Rome burns... we should all post here the signs of wha is going on in Asia. The leading indicator not the lagging indicator. My best to you all. Clark NB More from the WSJ.. just an example of the government of Japan's inability to reason, think, process information or generally act like it is not like a deer caught in the oncoming headlights and facing oblivion, (the WSJ) "...TOKYO -- The Japanese government is starting to flesh out its promises to make permanent income-tax cuts for individuals, but its latest plan actually threatens to increase taxes for many workers.... Taken together with Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's earlier pledge to lower the top income-tax rate to 50% from 65%, these cuts would fulfill the government's plan to cut individual income taxes... but individual taxpayers could get quite a surprise under the government's plan....many lower-income taxpayers could find that the tax cut under the new system is less than the rebate they received last year. In other words, their taxes will go up, not down.."