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Fear Of Year 2000 Computer Bug May Trigger Early Panic
01:40 a.m. Dec 13, 1998 Eastern
By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent
LONDON (Reuters) - Even if the ''millennium bomb'' does not explode in the world's computers just over a year from now, 1999 is likely to see rising panic as people take precautions against computer failure triggered by the year 2000.
Experts say the most vulnerable countries include Japan, France, Russia and Brazil and the most vulnerable sectors are utilities, especially power generation.
''Next year we will see periods of calm broken by occasional news stories predicting computer systems failures,'' said Ross Anderson of Cambridge University's Computer Security Research Center. ''My own feeling is that around August or September panic will start, with hoarding of food and bank notes. Then the whole thing becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.''
The time bomb has trivial origins. In the early days of computing, programs saved what was then precious space by abbreviating years to the last two digits.
They knew this could cause problems at the turn of the century because computers would read ''00'' as ''1900'' rather than ''2000'' and crash or spew out flawed data. But they thought these programs would be history by then as technology raced ahead.
They were wrong. Now the fear is that old data systems carrying the millennium bomb or bug could trigger disasters around the world in everything from defense, transport and telecommunications to energy and financial services.
EARLY TRIGGER DATES MAY GIVE BOMB FORETASTE
As 1999 progresses, early trigger dates are likely to provide sneak previews of the chaos that may hit as clocks strike midnight on Dec. 31. The first is Jan. 1, 1999. Programs used in some accounting systems operate a rolling year ahead as they set renewal dates for insurance premiums or bank loans and may crash when they reach out beyond Jan. 1, 2000.
Margaret Joachim, Year 2000 coordinator at data processing services company Electronic Data Systems Corp., says there are other dates next year that might trigger computer failure.
''April 9, 1999, the 99th day of the year, and Sept. 9, 1999, which might be recorded as 9-9-99. This is because programmers often used nines as a cutoff for a program. A row of nines meant 'don't do this anymore,''' Joachim said.
The world is in differing states of readiness. Information technology consultancy Gartner Group says the United States is best prepared, followed by Canada, Australia, South Africa, Israel and Britain. At the bottom of the list is Brazil, the world's eighth largest economy and a big producer of industrial components, commodities and grains.
Brazil is unlikely to be able to confine problems within its borders, according to a recent report by Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in New York.
Japan's lack of action is also causing concern. The Japanese government said last month that important industries like finance, transport, energy, telecommunications and medicine were lagging in year 2000 preparation.
Hong Kong's government has said 80 percent of its critical computer systems were ready for 2000 as of Sept. 30, 1998, but it is worried about small and medium-sized businesses.
India does not expect much damage because of its small number of computers -- only around 2.3 million in a nation of about 950 million. But India's ''brain trust'' of software makers have bagged orders worth $1.5 billion to fix year 2000 problems around the world, said Dewang Mehta, executive director of the National Association of Software and Service Companies.
In China, authorities have decreed that all government computer systems must be fixed by March and tests completed by September 1999.
FRANCE, RUSSIA CAUSE FOR CONCERN
Cambridge University's Anderson said France was most at risk in Western Europe, with computer failures most likely in the public sector and especially public utilities. Any problems could quickly become a problem for neighbors such as Britain, which receives electric power from France.
''There is still quite a question mark over whether France sees the scale of the problem,'' said Chris Webster, head of year 2000 services at Cap Gemini.
''There's a real chance that there may be some loss of service from utilities. Who, when, where or why? Impossible to say. Will it be a complete loss of power, voltage fluctuations? And there is a remarkable lack of information from utilities as to what they are expecting to happen.''
JP Morgan's Year 2000 expert Patrick Ward says Eastern Europe's and Russia's utilities are a big concern, not least because Russia provides 40 percent of Germany's power.
If some systems crashes are triggered early by the arrival of Jan. 1, 1999, it might be a blessing in disguise.
''This will involve accounting, planning and budgeting systems rather than operational executing systems, which carry out day-to-day business. It will give you some experience in spotting the errors and knowing how to deal with them,'' Webster said.
But Anderson is taking no chances: ''Personally, I plan to have three months' food, a working well, three tons of calor (heating) gas and 400 liters of diesel come the dreadful day.''
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