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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Lyons who wrote (4196)	12/13/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

Some more crap on why there are so many options being traded on APM! Life sucks I mean investing sucks when you are a small fry and has no idea what is going on. But here is the clue. Sue you still got your APM? Might end up being a core portfolio if this pans out. Actually, some GM employee pension funds by: finangler Strange, huh? Some pension plans of a commodity car producer willing to eat $15,000,000 of a $20,000,000 garden variety bailout of a key American head supplier of the commodity disk drive business with the kind of balance sheet that APM has. This company had no business, I repeat, no business getting that kind of financing on those kinds of terms (discounted common stock, no warrants on the side, have you checked the average total returns of the junk bond market lately?). Wasn't that the conventional wisdom of the people who were supposedly in the know? We can only hope that all those loudmouths didn't back up their words with actual shorts. :) Now the chorus of the choir is going to be that nobody will throw more good money after bad when the money runs out. Not unless they are doing a favor for a certain foreign company that recently traded its fledgling car business for the electronics business of another foreign company with a much bigger car business. Not unless, they are trying to provide a carrot for a potential rival in the car business, one with a history for brutal pricing, knowing fully well that that foreign company has been more or less promised one of two hi volume slots in a disk drive program at a major PC maker that requires a disk drive with a $50 bill of materials. That same PC maker, by the way, was recently wowed by the ability of this same foreign company to ramp the production of a certain hi end logic chip in a short period of time. I challenge you to do your numbers and tell me if a disk drive with a $50 bill of materials can be made profitably without integrating the production of a $6 magnetic head. Speculative? Of course! What kind of question is that? You are reading the post of an anonymous yahoo on the internet who was just talking his position. But how is that different from betting that APM's stock will start to disintegrate well before it runs out of cash in 2 quarters? That, my friend, was just a terrible, terrible read of the supply and demand dynamic of this company's stock. Textbook terrible. But most of all, arrogant. Mr. market will always get ya. I have the scars to show for it. Now, which was the irresponsible bet? One thing for sure, I acted on my instincts and my speculations based on rumors, and that's what these really are, and padded the truly disposable part of my income. Substantially, as a matter of fact. Can you say the same thing? I don't think so. Now I better duck before Mr. Market takes it all back.:)