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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CMS27 who wrote (8654)	12/13/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Afaq Sarwar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

Scott, Flint responded to your post over on at RB board. Here is that response. -------------------------------------------------------- Attn: Scott Bailey, The whole BWAI issue seems like a fiasco. But that is using 20/20 hindsight. Your points about equity dilution are valid - it was beyond the risk you were willing to tolerate, so you sold. It is within my tolerance so I hold. (Hey it rhymes and reasons! :-)) ABCN seems like another story altogether. I will count on profits from that when it happens. There is enough work to pull off the US-based products and markets. So I will wait. Again others may not. Vive la difference! But what really juiced me up was your link to Bell Atlantic. Scott, I must thank you for this report at this time. I have selected portions that I think are relevant to DWDM and metro architecture, the seminars and all that stuff. I did not try consciously to put a +ve or -ve spin, so if it seems either way, it is just a coincidence. Now that disclaimers are out of the way, here's the news: 1. It is from May 1998, when DWDM metro was not as widespread an issue. And IT SHOWS!!! If you see the following paragraph - the $1.5Billion is split mainly into SONET gear and 12-15M (less than 1%!!!) is for DWDM!!! Here's the CLINCHER - the whole point and charm of EPC/Gigamux is to eliminate Optical cross-connects and duplication of the Sonet layer. In other words, the lure of DWDM in long haul is you just need DWDM to get 16 or whatever times the bandwidth, but in short-haul you need 16 sets of gear, cross-connects, Sonet gear and so on. That is almost like having 16 strands of fiber. But EPC eliminates the need for all that by handling the multiplexing itself. Here's the relevant paragraph from 6 months ago: "Besides the DWDM gear, Bell Atlantic will also buy Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) transmission equipment and crossconnect systems over a five-year period. In addition to the CIENA/Lucent split for the DWDM equipment, Lucent and Fujitsu Network Communications Inc. (Richardson, TX) will share the SONET equipment portion of the upgrade, while DSC Communications (Dallas, TX) and Tellabs (Lisle, IL) will divide the crossconnect work. Lucent also will provide overall network management via its ITM software-based system." And here's the bit about how much DWDM is in the plan: "The two vendors will split one of the smallest portions of Bell Atlantic's planned $1.5 billion outlay. "We have some ranges that we've developed," says Edwards. "We're talking about a range of 12 to 15 million dollars in DWDM equipment for Lucent and for CIENA. That's each, so a total of 25 to 30 million dollars is what we're looking at today."" Mort post...