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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FACTUAL who wrote (1649)	12/14/1998 3:27:00 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

>>>Based on the PPP ( Purchasing Power Parity ) Theory the yen is still high and consumer products prices can still fall. Relatively speaking the yen has strengthened vis-a-vis its consumer products suppliers ( China, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Taiwan ). Thus price destruction should continue. Is internet shopping taking off in Japan?<<< Prices are a lot higher , granted, but taxes are lower, for the vast majority of the population. No takes on revenue below 350,000 yen per month. What people see as deflation, others see as healthy competition and efficiency... On your question about internet shopping, I am not sure I can answer that. Perhaps only two personal obsevations: 1) the percentages increase will look big since essentially, they are working from a small base (compared to the USA) 2) credit cards are still not that common or I should say commonly used for purchases ( a precondition to conduct internet shopping) >>>Applicability of US style resolution to the Japanese banking crisis is limited. Most Asian countries do not culturally have an adversarial process ingrained but rather are governed by Mandarins. Thus the apparatus (e.g. lawyers ) simply does not exist. All the lawyers in Japan may be able to handle all the problems of say a single jusen. But the system at large will have to economically grow out of it unless a combination of external pressure and internal power balancing make some resolution feasible.<<< I agree. >>>The economic crisis in Japan may worsen if the Chinese devalue ( the other option being for the Chinese to continue their current Ponzi scheme in the construction sector ), <<< Could you elaborate on why this would make a recovery harder? >>> and/ or the situation in Russia does not get better.<<< Japan has minimal trade with Russia. Even less now that they are bankrupt. >>> Should the Fed raise rates or the ECB stay with its original mandate, substantial relief in Japan wil be indefintely delayed. Property in Asia and Japan still do not factor realistic market prices. If they do ( which is unlikely ) plan on a major depression.<<< Tha would drain Japan of investment, as the yen deposits flock to higher interest bearing locales... Unlikely to happen, given the situation in Latinam ... I agree. >>> All this suggests that fiscal stimuli are not appropriate- perhaps radical action on the monetary front is required which will almost certainly have unpredictable and nasty surprises. <<< Yen at 160? I expected it there by now, and look where we are??? >>>I remain puzzled as to why there is an expectation that Japan will turn in two years. It may, but I cannot see the reasons why.<<< People need to be optimistic. Watching the news here, I tell you it is difficult to be but one has to be for when there is a point where things have no where but up to go... That point has not arrived I think ... Bankruptcies are at record high here in the prefecture, with people wondering which will be next to fail... >> Merry Christmas<< Same to you later sg