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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RagTimeBand who wrote (7716)	12/14/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 9980

G'day all - dear Emory, you pondered "Any similar insights into the prospects of China breaking up?" At the risk of being a me-too person, I'd like to learn Clark's insight also. Personally, I cannot see any parallel between Russia and China at all. Quite on the contrary, China's recent crack down on Tibet and other minorities [much to my dismay] reveals China's determination not to follow Russia's footstep. I personally believe it is an overreaction, as the two cultures differ vastly. First, while I don't know much about the muslim minorities, of the tibetans I have met, most of them are not much of a cultural chauvinist [note: there is a militant faction of course, but my bet is with the moderate faction allied with the 14th Dalai Lama.] Akin to the above, the Chinese govt is smart enough to "kill the chicken to warn the monkey" in the criminal justice arena. Recently, it executed the gang who kidnapped [for ransom] the son of Li Ka Shing. Sure, there was a symbolic uproar [since the crime was committed in HK.] But I'll bet the people in HK like the idea. Despite the dislocation of some of the Chinese population [more as a result of the transition from the agriculture to industrial modernisation,] there are genuine opportunities. Of course, foreign investments continue their conjure up their vision of 1.2B consumers - never mind if it is truth or fiction, the temptation is so profound that it is no difference from the ethnic chinese seeking to go to SF - the old gold mountain - in the 19th C. There are the show of force [again, I talk on pure analytical terms, sans personal preference.] Now, what is the possible demise. Chinese likes harmony. A brutal dynasty like the Yuan's lasted less than 2 decades, while the inclusive - to a limited sense - Ching dynasty lasted for 300 years. While the Chinese leaderships may look feudalistic, these people know their histories [as an aside, according to my sister, trained in Chinese history, Mao learned to rule by using "the epic of the three kingdoms!"] So, are they going to heed to their understanding of history? Time will tell best, Bosco