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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HiSpeed who wrote (1793)12/15/1998 12:53:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Hello and thank you HiSpeed,

>>From a PnF stand point and looking at the 20 x 60 DJIA chart....it looks like today the dow tanked right through the BSL. When this happens do we go to the next chart? I ask because it looks like the market went through the 8740 BSL significantly.<<

The 20 X 60 chart is a never ending story -- but a story in and of itself.

>>From a PnF stand point and looking at the 50 x 150 DJIA chart, would you say the BSL should hold (8700) or the ST uptrend (8500) will hold? And if we fall through those the next level of support is around 77-7800. Correct? I recently bought Dorsey's PnF book so I hope to contribute from this view soon.<<

It didn't hold. Yes.

Let's see what happened today --

DAILY LOOK BACK

The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed at 8695.6 which was down 126.16 or 1.43% from Friday and down 374.87 points or 4.13% from a week ago. TRANSPORTS closed at 2858.66 which is down 70.85 points or 2.42% from Friday and down 257.17 points or 8.25% from a week ago. UTILITIES closed at 304.21 for a .21 point drop from Friday and down 4.25 points or 1.38% from a week ago. The S&P 500 closed at 1141.2 for a drop of 25.26 points or 2.17% from Friday and down 46.5 points or 3.92% from a week ago. The NAZ took it on the chin today closing at 1966.92 for a daily drop of 62.39 points or 3.07% but only down 73.72 points or 3.61% from a week ago.

Here's how the referenced Indexes look from an overbought/oversold perspective using a 50 day moving average. The top and bottom are calculated by looking back one year at the highest and lowest (as a %) that they have traded above or below the 50 dma. 

	52	52						
	WEEK	WEEK					OVER	OVER
INDEX	LOW	HIGH	CLOSE	BOTTOM	50DMA	TOP	SOLD	BOUGHT
								
DJIA	7379.7	9457.95	8695.60	7275.60	8672.96	9777.02	0.00%	2.05%
DJTA	2260.24	3735.38	2858.66	2249.17	2849.48	3227.20	0.00%	2.43%
DJUA	259.51	323.65	304.21	286.04	307.17	346.72	14.00%	0.00%
S&P	912.83	1193.53	1141.20	930.57	1104.99	1233.03	0.00%	28.28%
NAZ	1343.87	2060.98	1966.92	1416.75	1801.44	2097.44	0.00%	55.90%

THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE 20 X 60

9360     X   *
9340     X O X *
9320     X O X O *
9300     X O X O   *
9280     X O X O     *
9260     X O   O       *
9240     X     O         *
9220     X     O           *
9200     X     O             *
9180     X     O               * < Bearish Resistance Line
9160     X     O
9140     X     O  
9120     X     O X  
9100     X     O X O  
9080 X   X     O X O    
9060 X O X     O X O X   X
9040 X O X     O   O X O X O X
9020 X O X         O X O X O X O
9000 X O           O X O X O X O
8980 X *           O   O X O   O
8960 X   *             O X     O < Double Bottom Sell Signal
8940 X     *           O X     O
8920 X       *         O X     O  
8900 X         *       O X     O
8880 X           *     O       O
8860 X             *           O < Spread D/B Sell Signal
8840 X               *         O
8820                   *       O
8800                     *     O
8780                       *   O
8760                         * O
8740                           O
8720                           O * < Bearish Support LIne
8700                           0 
                       1 1 1 1 1
     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4

-Double Bottom Sell Signals at 6,2940,11/30/98; 8,9020,12/1/98; 10,8960,12/4/98; and 14,8860,12/10/98.
-Long term bullish (trading above its Bullish Support Line) and short term bearish (on a sell signal).
-Lower tops and lower bottoms depicts overall weakness.

Today's Action: Three O's added. Went right through the Bearish Support Line. The next Bearish Support Line is at 8480. There's also horizontal support at 8600 and 8440.

THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE - 50 X 150

9350                               X *
9300                               X O *
9250                               X O   * < Bearish Res. Line
9200                               X O
9150                               X O
9100                               X O *
9050                               X O X *
9000                               X O X O * < S/T Downtrend Line
8950                               X O X O
8900                               X O   O
8850                               X *   O < D/B Sell Signal
8800                               X   * O
8750                               X   + O 
8700                               X +   O * < Bearish Support Line
8650                               X
8600 O                         X   X 
8550 O                         X O X
8500 O                       + X O X     + < Short Term Uptrend Line
8450 O Bullish Res. Line>  +   X O X   +
8400 O                   +     X O X +
8350 O                 +       X O +
8300 O               +         X +
8250 O             +           X
8200 O           +             X
8150 O         +   X   X       X 
8100 O       +     X O X O     X
8050 O     +   X   X O X O     X
8000 O   + X   X O X O X O     X
7950 O +   X O X O X O   O     X
7900 O X   X O X O X     O     X
7850 O X O X O X O X     O     X
7800 O X O X O X O X     O X   X 
7750 O X O X O X O       O X O X         + < Bullish Support Line
7700 O X O X O X         O X O X       +
7650 O X O X O X         O   O X     +
7600 O X O X O               O X   +
7550 O   O                   O X +
7500                         O +
                             +
                       1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 
     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-Double Bottom Sell Signal at 19,8850,12/10/98.
-Long term bullish (trading above Bullish Support Line) and short term bearish (on a sell signal).

Today's Action: Added two new O's. Passed through fairly strong support. Next support at the Short Term Uptrend Line at 8500 and then the previous horizontal support at 8350.

THE NAZ - 4 X 12

2052         *   
2048         X *
2044         X O * < Bearish Resistance Line
2040         X O
2036         X O
2032         X O
2028         X O X   + < Bullish Resistance Line
2024         X O X O + < Short Term Uptrend Line
2020         X O X O
2016 X       X O + O
2012 X O     X +   O < Double Bottom Sell Signal
2008 X O   + X     O
2004 X O +   X     O 
2000 X O X   X     O
1996 X O X O X     O
1992 X O X O X     O
1988 X O X O X     O
1984 X O X O X     O
1980 X O X O X     O
1976 X O X O X     O
1972 X O X O X     O + < Intermediate Term Uptrend Line
1968 X O X O X     O 
1964 X O X O X   +
1960 X O X O X +
1956 X O X O +
1952 X O + +
1948 X +
1944 X
1940 X
     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-Double Top Buy Signal at 5,2004,12/7/98; Double Bottom Sell Signal at 8,2012,12/14/98.
-Long term bullish(trading above its Bullish Support Line) and short term bearish (on a sell signal).
-Notice the Bullish Triangle. The first column of X's found resistance at 2016 and then reversed down and from then on the tops got lower and the bottoms higher until the Double Top Bug Signal at 2004. A Bullish Triangle requires at least 5 columns.

Today's Action: Reversed down big time today 15 boxes and gave the first sell signal in a long time. Found support at the Intermediate Uptrend Line. You can see horizontal support at 1956 and 1952.

Take care,

Eric


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