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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon K. who wrote (5305)	12/15/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Jon K.	Respond to of 9236

Helloooooo, anybody home? Wake up guys, AWRE went up $1.25 today on my optimistic 7 year net income projection. <gg> Some of you PM me that the Net Income projection seems too good to be true. Of course it is way too high. If you want, you can think of $228 million as accumulated net income of next 20 years. You can spread the income over 20 years instead of 7 years... I just didn't feel like making 20 year projection chart.

To: Jon K. who wrote (5305)	12/17/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: JW@KSC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9236

Re: "I'm Still Short" Great Soap Box Speech Jon. I guess you still don't fully understand DSL Technology yet. It hit me head on after just two weeks in DSL back in Jan '96, and no matter what I have added/debated to the equation since then, nothing has changed my orginal view of DSL's future. As I mentioned before, Aware's asset is its technology. If someone else come up with a better technology, Aware is doomed over night. Better yes, cost effective? I don't think so Tim, er Jon.... And even within DSL Technology, there will be a fierce competition. Yes and give me 5% of the POTS bandwidth demand, of the 800 Million POTS lines in the world, and I'll be happy. Remember too, for every 4 consumer modems you have to have one in the DSLAM (currently). There is more to AWRE than just the Numbers. If based on Numbers what would Yahoo be worth? Being Hot Commodity, or Hype can drive things way out of proportion. Take your own survey and ask the following: Which of the following would you most like to have: 1. A bigger hard drive (in your PC Guy's) 2. More Memory 3. An error free version of Win98 4. R/W DVD 5. Faster CPU 6. T-1 connection to the WEB (1.5MB) You'll soon find that 90% will choose #6. That's Today. Once there are 10 - 20 million average Joes that have bandwidth, there will be sites that will take advantage and have all kinds of neat stuff that requires at least 1MB speed. At that point bandwidth starts becoming the hottest gotta have commodity in the PC Industry. Look at what happened to RAMBUS with their IP Technology on SDRAM! bigcharts.com Having IP on ADSL G.Lite AWRE is sitting pretty. Though I must say G.Lite is an interim step, a kin to a match under the ass of a slow moving dinosaur, so the telcos don't have to make a truck roll to the customers home. Full blown ADSL will be available to those who require/desire it. AWRE will also produce VDSL, insuring they continue profits, much further than 7 years. But let's assume DSL technology will prosper for next 7 years I will assume there are 50/50 chance that new technology will replace DSL Way off base IMHO. ADSL/VDSL will be around for the next 40 years. As will the 800 million POT's Lines in the world, and growing. Yes there will be new technologies, but will they be cost effective for the average Joe? Why pore water from the sky, etc. when the pipe is already laid. VDSL will be the Bandwidth Technology in the future to the home. You can't run Fiber To The Curb , except in areas currently being built, it's not cost effective. Picture an area in a one mile radius, think the POTS as a Spiders Web, what would it cost and how long would it take to run Fiber to the Curb. Now run a single fiber to the center of the Spiders WEB and use POTS to run 52MB to everyone. That's enough bandwidth for HDTV, Telephone, High-Speed Net access, plus lots more. COPPER is GOLD, which Motorola told us in 1996. COPPERGOLD - TM Right? Wrong? Feedback anyone? Regards, JW@KSC