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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (1823)	12/14/1998 11:34:00 PM
From: Ron Dior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Is this fundamental or technical analysis? I think market is headed up because: Everyone thinks it is headed down! All those years of schooling really paid off. Ron Dior

To: James Strauss who wrote (1823)	12/15/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: brian z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dow 8695 is a support reached today. I think Dow can hold here and start rally. Let's see.

To: James Strauss who wrote (1823)	12/15/1998 4:04:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, Well...here we are: Message 6714108 With no real sign of support from which to go "balls out" bullish, sub 8,000 Dow is a couple weeks away. 200 sMA support means a lot less since that benchmark was thrashed just 2 months ago. There's a different dynamic at work here. IMO, Doug R

To: James Strauss who wrote (1823)	12/15/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ================================= Previously, I had called a bottom to this downswing on MON, then TUE. Per last nites data, the overall market is a CLASS BUY signal with the exception of the NAZ, which is in the mid-range. As much as I attempt to keep my analysis mechanical, one cannot discount the upcoming impeachment hearings, which is now skewing the technicals somewhat. It is quite obvious that the market internals are deteriorating and that certain indexes have already started setting LOWER LOWs, including the DOW. Markets dont go straight down, or straight up - even the huge selloff in the summer had 3 steps. Based on intraday prices, the DOW has already pulled back 700 points. We are due for some sort of bounce soon, but must keep in mind the impeachment hearings. As I always stated and firmly believe, significant news/fundamentals can over-ride the technicals. Under normal conditions, I would expect a 50% rebound for the immediate next upcycle which would bring the DOW back to the approximate 9000 range. If Clinton is impeached, the rebound may go up in smoke, but if CLINTON is not impeached, things should revert to some normality and there should be some sort of a rebound. Concerning the forthcoming rebound, since the market internals are becoming more negative, such could also minimize any rebound. I have not done the research myself, but have read somewhere that the minimum for a rebound was about 20%, so if the DOW goes no lower the minimal amount for a rebound could be as little as 140 intraday points which would put it at 8820(8680 as the lows). Dont get me wrong - I am not turning bullish on the market, since I did call the CLASS SELL around NOV 23, and the DEC pullback based on the the NEW HIGHs staying below 100, - but on the other hand we should not discount the seasonal cycles(IE: JAN effect, 1st quarter runup, etc). The JAN effect is a viable statistical event. Could anyone state what the JAN effect is in detail since there are specifics like "If the 1st 5 days_________________". Im just mentioning that, since many have now turned negative towards the market. I just want to bring to attention that statistically, many turn negative towards the end of pullback and positive towards the end of a runup. Such timing of sentiment change is implied by strong movement in the direction of the pullback or runup during 1-2 days prior to it reversing in the opposite direction. Please keep in mind that the I attempt to identify short-term trends and reversal points. I am still unable to post much for the next few weeks. Seeya and good luck.