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To: Aitch who wrote (40012)	12/15/1998 7:30:00 AM
From: Kenya AA	Respond to of 97611

Kansas and Kenya are on the same wavelength ... Editor's Letter: Washington Stirrings Require Close Attention By Dave Kansas Editor-in-Chief 12/14/98 7:59 PM ET Presidential impeachment brings me back to the writing well. It's been too long since I've had a chance to weigh in on what's happening, and the doings in Washington offer me an opportunity to wade back into the fray. It was surreal to watch the hearings over the weekend. But I was gripped by the process as it rolled forward like a slow-motion train wreck that nobody could avoid. Debate and counterdebate late into a Saturday afternoon. And then the final votes to send articles of impeachment to the House floor. Many of my friends in the media are dumbfounded by what's happening in Washington. But as is often the case, the mood of the country, I don't believe, is being fairly measured. Bill Clinton believed the last election meant that the impeachment thing was done. But as there has been no seeming ground swell for impeachment, there's been no ground swell against impeachment either. Yes, opinion polls show people are pleased with the way the country's running. But it seems there's a remarkable silence concerning the impeachment proceedings, save for strong-willed people on either side of the debate. For investors who are all too willing to ignore Washington antics, the time has come to focus squarely on what's going on inside the Beltway. Handicapping the Clinton saga could help you figure out the stock market. Before the stout-hearted Democrats get irked, let me point out that Clinton has presided over a robust stock market. Clinton backers cite the budget-balancing efforts and the wisdom of Robert Rubin, the Treasury secretary. Clinton detractors argue that since Clinton is constantly putting out fires, he has been unable to get in the way of a mighty economic machine. As a populist backer of Jesse "The Mind" Ventura, I can safely say that both groups have points in their favor. But the stock market is telling us that it's time to get serious about what's going on. Recall that the market rallied sharply upon the release of the Starr report, with many investors telling TSC and other outlets that the lack of smoking-hot new evidence made Wall Street feel at ease that Clinton would be slapped on the wrist and the country would move forward. Now, with the articles of impeachment moving to the floor, and seemingly headed toward the Senate, the stock market is backing off those earlier gains. What are the possibilities in the near term? The most damaging scenario is the one outlined in the Constitution. Impeachment passes, the Senate holds a trial and votes on the case. This would severely crimp the government's ability to function at a highly crucial time. Though much of the international mayhem is off the front page, it still festers. Financial problems from Brazil to Tokyo, as well as nonfinancial concerns in Iraq, Kosovo, the Middle East, Central Africa and North Korea, have not disappeared. A seriously distracted president -- who would need a month or two to prepare for the Senate trial -- would likely bring those issues back to the surface sooner rather than later, and that would spell trouble for the stock market. I believe the most damaging scenario, however, is not the most likely scenario. Thus far the House Republicans have appeared unwilling to consider alternatives to impeachment. The Senate may opt for something simpler, such as a plea bargain that would include censure. Right now it appears the Senate would not have the votes to impeach. In such a case, the Senate leadership might move quickly to come up with a different solution that took less time and caused less distraction. The key to the Senate's mindset will begin to emerge in the coming days. Investors should listen closely to gauge the mindset of Senators. Of particular importance are the Senate Republican leaders, especially Trent Lott. In addition, listen for the words of Robert Byrd. Senator Byrd, a Democrat, is a stickler for by-the-book action. He may come out and declare that the trial must go forward. But, more important, he would have the authority to make a declaration that would give cover for an alternative, swifter solution. In the meantime, as the House moves inexorably toward voting on impeachment, listen to the senators. Bizarrely, they -- not Alan Greenspan or Rubin -- hold the key to the investment climate for the foreseeable future.