MARKET WRAP -4 / Crude Oil & Natural Gas Current Scenario-News
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12/14 14:09 U.S. spot natgas prices rebound with Jan futures
12/14 14:32 Canada natgas prices strengthen on colder forecast
12/14 16:37 NYMEX Hub natgas ends with weather-related gains
12/15 02:34 WSC-Canadian Energy Weather
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12/14 14:09 U.S. spot natgas prices rebound with Jan futures
NEW YORK, Dec 14 - U.S. spot natural gas prices rebounded Monday in tandem with an early rally in January futures as colder weather was forecast for much of the U.S. later this week, industry sources said.
"It was a Monday morning rally on the screen," one Midwest trader said.
Cash prices at Henry Hub were quoted widely at $1.72-1.85 per mmBtu, with most business seen done near $1.80, narrowing the gap to January futures to under 20 cents.
The Midcontinent market was also boosted by post-weekend demand and prospects for colder weather, sources said.
Prices on Midcontinent pipelines like Panhandle, ANR and NGPL were quoted in the high-$1.70s to low-$1.80s, while Chicago city-gate was pegged in the mid-$1.90s.
In west Texas, swing Permian Basin prices were quoted at $1.75-1.87, while the San Juan market swung from about $1.75 to $1.85, sources said.
El Paso's Permian-San Juan Crossover line, which ruptured Saturday morning, was back in service by Sunday night, the company said in a statement.
Also, El Paso reported its Navajo 1D turbine will be down for maintenance this Wednesday and Thursday, reducing the capacity of the North Mainline by 50 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd).
El Paso's Castle Dome Station will also undergo maintenance from 2355 MST Monday until 1200 MST Wednesday, which will likely lower pressures on the Yuma lateral.
Also scheduled is maintenance at Northern Natural's Hugoton station in Kansas on Tuesday. The maintenance is expected to affect about 40 mmcfd of supply.
At the southern California border, most deals were reported done at $2.09-2.12, though late business was seen done as high as $2.19.
In the New York area, city-gate prices were quoted at $2.15-2.20. Appalachian prices on Columbia Gas were seen trading mostly in the mid- to high-$1.90s.
Forecasts show above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. early this week, with the Chicago area expected to see a high of about 55 degrees on Tuesday.
Below-normal levels are expected to arrive by Thursday and Friday in the central and eastern U.S., with the Northeast expected to see temperatures about four to eight degrees below normal by Friday, Weather Services Corp. said.
12/14 14:32 Canada natgas prices strengthen on colder forecast
NEW YORK, Dec 14 - Canadian spot natural gas prices turned sharply higher on Monday due to a revised weather forecast, an increase in U.S. demand and a rally on NYMEX, industry sources said.
"They revised the forecast a little. We were supposed to get some cold this Saturday, but now it looks like we're going to get it Thursday instead," one Calgary-based trader said.
As a result, day business at Alberta's AECO storage hub was quoted mostly at C$2.28-2.30 per gigajoule (GJ), up about 33 cents from Friday.
This follows weekend trading around C$2.15 per GJ.
January AECO was also pegged higher at C$2.37.
"We're getting pretty close to January right now. We should see some resistance at $2.30," a trader said, when asked whether he expected more strength in the market on Tuesday.
Despite the approaching cold front, supplies were still abundant in Alberta. Linepack on NOVA's system was at 13.194 billion cubic feet (bcf) late Sunday, over the pipeline's target of 13 bcf.
The uptick in demand was also felt in the export markets. Sumas / Huntingdon prices were quoted widely at US$2.00-2.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), with most business seen done at US$2.10-2.15.
To the east, prices at Niagara rebounded by about 26 cents to the US$1.90s per mmBtu as NYMEX's January contract jumped to an early high of $2.00.
12/14 16:37 NYMEX Hub natural gas ends with weather-related gains
NEW YORK, Dec 14 - NYMEX Hub natgas futures mostly ended higher Monday in a moderately active session, boosted by shortcovering and technical buying in the face of colder weather forecasts later this week and next.
January jumped 9.4 cents to close at $1.952 per million British thermal units after trading today between $1.93 and $2.00. February settled 7.1 cents higher at $1.994. Most other months ended flat to up 5.9 cents.
"We saw shortcovering almost across the board today on the weather forecasts, but it's no big deal. The market ran out of (downside) momentum last week, so the shorts decided to take profits today, but I don't think we're going far," said one Midwest trader, adding he expected the hefty 567 bcf year-on-year stock surplus to weigh on any rallies.
Early withdrawal estimates for Wednesday's weekly AGA storage report are in the 30-80 bcf range. For the same week last year, stocks declined 136 bcf.
WSC expects Northeast and Mid-Atlantic temperatures to start the week slightly below normal, then warm at midweek to as much as 15 degrees F above normal before cooling to several degrees below normal by Friday. Southeast readings early in the week will range from normal to slightly below normal, then cool to as much as 12 degrees below normal late in the period.
In the Midwest, much above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday will cool to closer to seasonal levels by Friday. Above normal readings Monday and Tuesday in Texas will moderate to normal or slightly below normal later in the week. The Southwest will average normal to above normal this week.
Technical traders pegged psychological resistance in January at $2.00, with better selling expected in the remaining $2.12-2.19 gap. Further resistance was likely at $2.27 and then at $2.35.
January support was still seen at Thursday's contract low of $1.79, which coincides with a prominent spot continuation low at $1.78. Major buying should emerge at $1.61, which is the spot low for the year.
In the cash Monday, Henry Hub swing quotes on average jumped more than 20 cents to about the $1.80 level. Midcon pipes were almost 25 cents higher at about $1.80. In the West, El Paso Permian rallied 20 cents to the low-$1.80s.
Gas at the Chicago city gate was talked 30 cents higher in the mid-$1.90s, while New York was up 30-35 cents to the $2.15-2.20 area.
The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip gained 2.9 cents to $2.041. NYMEX said an estimated 68,640 Hub contracts traded today, up from Friday's revised tally of 40,905.
12/15 02:34 WSC-Canadian Energy Weather
As of 07:34 GMT, 15 DEC 1998
SUMMARY- Temperatures from near normal west to 6F (3C) above normal east.
IMPACT- Mild temperatures will keep heating needs below normal for the next several days. There are some signs of colder air at some time next week which would increase heating demands.
FORECAST-
48 HOUR...Temperatures 6-12F (3-6C) above normal today-Wednesday.
3 TO 5 DAY...Temperatures 3-6F (2-3C) above normal Thursday-Saturday.
6 TO 10 DAY...Temperatures near normal levels.
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Chart References
NYMEX HENRY-Hub NATURAL GAS PRICE CHARTS
oilworld.com
WEST Tx WAHA-Hub NATURAL GAS PRICE CHARTS
oilworld.com
OIL INDUSTRY COMBINED GRAPH CHARTS
oilworld.com
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